Replies to post #151260 on Biotech Values

[JJM760]

Not sure what percentage of patients might be able to discontinue. Let's see how this plays out. Should a company I have invested help to cure cancer in some form and I am only able to see a 5,000% return instead of a 10,000%, I promise you I won't complain. For the record, if Ariad never went higher than $22 again, I think I should get down on my knees and praise God considering my first buys were at $1.26.

As far as the 20 bil MC, I am still waiting for your response to my message (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80866234) of Ariad's many other shots on goal. Specifically, in your questioning of Ariad's valuation, to my knowledge you have never really entertained to prospects for 113. Any opinion of what has been presented on 113 to date?

[iandy]

Dew is right. Pona will earn more if CML remains a disease that requires chronic treatment for almost all patients.
If you are trying to calculate Ariad's hypothetical future worth (instead of focusing on just pona in CML) you should not ignore pona's potential in other indications and AP26113, which has at least double the potential of pona in CML.

BTW: MD Anderson has already begun a 50 patient Frontline trial of pona in CML.

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01570868

This study will provide the first data on pona in frontline and ,if the results are as expected, might trump anything NVS is doing to protect their CML franchise...

I think.