Replies to post #150810 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

My votes on the Solanezumab survey (FWIW):

Q1: Yes
Q2: No
Q3: <5%

[DewDiligence]

Re: Solanezumab survey post-mortem

I’m surprised that only 16 people voted in a survey on such a high-profile program that addresses what is probably the greatest unmet need in medicine today. I surmise that there would have been considerably more interest in this survey if a small biotech firm rather than a Big Pharma owned the rights to the drug.

[DewDiligence]

LYY’s 3Q12 PR on Solanezumab:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lilly-reports-third-quarter-2012-103000823.html

The next steps for solanezumab will be determined after discussions with regulators.

I.e. no new news.

[DewDiligence]

LLY will run another phase-3 Solanezumab study in mild AD before considering whether to submit an BLA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lilly-provides-next-steps-solanezumab-115500057.html

Following discussions with regulators in the U.S., Europe and Canada, Lilly plans to conduct an additional Phase 3 study of solanezumab in patients with mild Alzheimer's disease. Additional details, including study design and length, are still being determined. Lilly expects to initiate this study no later than Q3 2013.

Based on recent meetings with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Lilly does not intend to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) at this time in the U.S. based solely on the existing analyses of data from the EXPEDITION studies.

This is hardly a surprise to most of the participants in a recent iHub survey, whose results were reported in #msg-80638500.