Replies to post #199911 on Plastic2Oil Inc (PTOI)

[janice shell]

The company certainly seems to be saying that the "executive summary" is the real thing.

[janice shell]

What is somewhat odd is that JBI has been at this for maybe 3 years now? You would think that they would have a more definitive estimate by now. Perhaps a Level 3 or 4 estimate. It would be accurate to maybe +- 20%. That is the first thing that is odd.

Wasn't the original estimate that each processor would cost about $250K?

[the big guy]

Furthermore, the 3-year ROI on that is like 50%. Not likely..

[User336447]

So do you know that a barrel of naphtha and #6 fuel both go for the same price of about $70? We're you basing that number on regular gasoline? Are they about all the same prices? Just wondering....

Look at rawnocs post saying a barrel of #6 goes for almost twice what you said.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75666276

[User336447]

Also they said the machines would only run at 50% the first months of operation. They didn't say the machine was running at 75% for the 3 day operating trial period. They just said that the proposed 75% would be reasonable. Maybe they had to turn it off ever few hours to clean the petcoke buildup and it was only running 50%, but in the future they won't have to do that. It was also only 2000lb/hour rates not a potential 4000. Also factor in the true prices of naphtha and #6 and multiply by 3 for the cluster and you may be closer to the EBITDA estimate.

[HomerRomer]

I just did a quick check and both types of fuel are over $100/barrel. It looks to me like you need to increase you price per barrel by about 60%. Very impressive DD though...thanks for sharing.

[FrankLind]

JBI confirmed its authenticity today. They also said it should not have been released.

So, unless you are claiming Kevin Rauber is knowingly lying, and allowing a fake SAIC report on his company to be in circulation, your thoughts on the authenticity of the document are way off.

I am simply amazed that detractors of JBI are not simply bowled over by those numbers. SAIC is a Fortune 500 company. They know more than any of us about this process because they were there. As in present watching the machines work producing the fuel.

[Rawnoc]

NYSE: SAI's numbers come out to almost $30 million in sales per year so $28 million in EBITDA seems reasonable to me.

(note -- this doesn't include the value of any petcoke or metals sold)

(1) During the trial, they processed 1685 lbs/hour or 8.34 pounds per gallon.

(2) At 4000 pounds an hour, that's around 480 gallons an hour per processor.

(3) 3 processors at that rate would be 34,560 gallons a day.

(4) The NYSE: RKT contract calls for NYMEX pricing which is important because this is the pricing that will be the basis of which NYSE: RKT buys the fuel at:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8517988

(5) When the trial was done back in April, gasoline's rack price was $3.16/gallon:
http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/66.html

(6) 34,560 gallons time $3.16/gallon = $109,210 per day in fuel sales.

(7) 75% up time per year = 274 days per year.

(8) $109,201 per day, 274 days per year, = $29,921,074 in fuel sales per year. EBITDA was estimated based on the "outdated" fuel prices to be $28,000,000 out of the $29,921,074

(9) Total costs per year are therefore estimated at $1,921,074

(10) Total barrels per year are estimated at 34,560 X 274 / 42 = 224,462

(11) Estimated cost per barrel is therefore $1,921,074 / 224,462 = $8.56 per barrel

(12) The company said $10/barrel -- NYSE: SAI estimates seem to work out to $8.56 per barrel. And the EBITDA seems feasible to me as well.

(note that EBITDA is before the 20% discount to NYSE: RKT)

(and, yes, we know these numbers aren't perfect and can't be relied and are outdated and blah blah blah blah. Tweak them severely and it's still a massive home run)