Replies to post #24926 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[cliffvb]

Nat Gas: Len, I understand your point that all the bad news may be priced into NG, but I also think that a pretty good case could have also have been made that last August just before Hurricane Katrina hit that everyone knew that a MAJOR hurricane was coming and there would be widespread damage and destruction. Where the exact center would hit was a variable but the hurricane was so huge that it didn't really matter.

Now take a look at a couple of stocks followed closely by this board: ZENX and PDGE. Both were obvious beneficiaries of a major hurricane hit and yet they both barely moved until after the fact, even though we all knew the hurricane was coming. In fact, Zenx could have still been bought at less than 20c for most of the week following the hurricane. After constant media exposure about the hurricane it peaked at $1.20 and change in the following few weeks. Another stock that has doubled since the hurricane is HOM and don't forget GV which started taking off until the company issued a PR saying they may not get any hurricane related work.

My point is don't underestimate the power of the media. People near freezing in cold winter weather is what makes for popular news stories. NG stocks could get rather frothy this winter as the news media bombards us with such stories. Theres no easy way out of the energy shortage either. I also believe that the gulf shutdowns are worse than is generally believed.

[Argyll]

For a long term look at Natural Gas:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/nat_gas.html

Consistent predictions of increased usage and consumption of natural gas everywhere. There are not too many other ways to go for electric power. There are wind farms and there's nuclear power, but it takes years to build a nuclear plant.