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BoomTime

10/06/05 11:59 PM

#125 RE: BoomTime #124

Useful Article #3

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1102&status=article&id=1322665...


Track Groups For New Signs Of Leadership

BY CHRISTINA WISE

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Internets dominated the first part of the last big bull run-up. Biotechs ruled the second.

Today, like faded high school football stars, both groups can only brag of their past deeds.

The stocks on each team are severely injured and will take time to get back into winning shape. But there's always another group itching to lead the stock market.

Market winners usually travel in packs. Stocks owe roughly half their price movement to their industry groups. Research shows that two out of three leading stocks were part of a leading group or sector.

When the market is working through a correction, it's important to pay attention to which industry groups are flexing their muscles. There's no guarantee past leaders will reassert themselves once the broad market recovers.

One way to find the stocks that may lead the market's next charge is to keep an eye on IBD's industry group ratings.

The list divides stocks into 197 categories. After each session, it calculates how each group stacks up against the others.

The paper also publishes an Industry Group and Ticker symbol index listing the stocks that make up each industry group.

To spot potential winners, focus on groups in the top 50.

Also note which industry groups have climbed from the bottom 100 to the top 50 in recent months. Groups showing these sorts of strong moves may have the energy to climb to the top of the heap and lead the market's next big rise.

A market rotation is under way.

Biotechs have surrendered their leadership and fallen to No. 31, as of Wednesday. The Computer Software Security group is No. 36, and Internet-Network Security is a dismal No. 60; both were in the top 10 seven weeks ago.

In contrast, semiconductor equipment makers, which were ranked No. 13 two months ago, are now at the head of the class. Their chipmaking siblings, formerly No. 8, are second in command.

Another way to spot up-and-coming leadership is to check out the table halfway down the same page. The new-high list shows the sectors, which are broader than industry groups, with the greatest number of stocks hitting 52-week price highs.

The top four or five sectors are where you're most likely to find winning stocks in a good market.

In the daily stock tables, the paper lists a letter grade indicating a stock's Group Relative Price Strength. You should focus on leading stocks in leading groups - those with an A or B Industry Group Rating and a Relative Price Strength Rating of 80 or higher.