Tom,
Hawks call the "doves" (doesn't really fit, but I'll use it for the moment for lack of a better term) "appeasers" or "wimps," but the doves call the hawks short-sighted, not sufficiently reflective about the blowback that inevitably comes from large scale violence and war. Below is another article on possible blowback, this time with respect to Turkey. Aristotle said long ago that "Well begun is half done," and he wasn't the first to note this. IMHO, the Bush Admin has totally mishandled this situation (that is, the current Iraqi crisis) from the beginning, and shows few signs of correcting their errors. They could have done it differently, and chose not to because they wanted to make it a political issue for the elections. And now we will all pay for their domestic political coup, but their international diplomatic bungling.
Posted on Wed, Feb. 26, 2003
Trudy Rubin / An ally, and a Pandora's box.
Mishandling of Turkey could lead to disaster
By Trudy Rubin
For months the White House has insisted that an Iraq war would
bolster beleaguered democrats and moderate Muslims in the
Middle East.
Yet the Bush administration's clumsy treatment of the mainly
Muslim and democratic state of Turkey seems likely to do the
reverse.
The administration was caught flat-footed by Turkey's reluctance
to join the war effort and let tens of thousands of U.S. forces use
Turkish bases. Only willful blindness can explain this level of
surprise.
When I traveled to Turkey last September, it was clear that Turks
were freaked out by the prospect of another Iraq war. Turkey
backed the Gulf War, which cost its struggling economy tens of
billions in lost trade and tourism, and temporary shelter for half a
million Iraqi refugees. The United States never kept its promises
to make good the losses.
The Turkish public overwhelmingly opposes an Iraq war. So why
should U.S. officials have been shocked when Turkish officials
bargained hard this time for financial compensation up front? Why
accuse the Turks of engaging in blackmail, when Uncle Sam was
trying to squeeze them?
The White House haggled all last week over whether the Turks
would be given $6 billion or $10 billion in grants. Facing a war that
will cost at least $100 billion, U.S. officials were ready to let a $4
billion gap prevent the opening of a northern front. No wonder the
Turks find it hard to fathom the Bush team.
What's more disturbing is how the administration ignored deep
Turkish fears about the future of the region after Saddam goes.
The White House was so busy predicting that a democratic wave
would roll over the Mideast on The Day After that it failed to
reassure an ally that expects a wave of chaos.
The Turks have visceral fears that the Kurds of northern Iraq will
declare independence and reignite Turkey's dormant civil war with
its own Kurds, a war that cost 30,000 lives. The Turks are wrong:
Iraq's Kurdish leaders understand geopolitical realities and are
committed to remaining within a federal Iraq state. U.S. officials
have assured Ankara that Iraq will remain united.
But the Turkish government doesn't trust U.S. promises. One good
reason is the shameful U.S. performance in Afghanistan.
Turkey headed up the international security force in Kabul for
eight months. Turkish leaders witnessed first-hand how the Bush
administration betrayed its pledges to rebuild Afghanistan,
focusing only on the capital city. "They have good reason to
believe we'll secure Baghdad and let the rest of Iraq go to hell,"
one U.S. official told me.
To assuage Turkish fears, U.S. officials would have to convince
Ankara that they plan to hold Iraq together. Instead, U.S. officials
appear to be following a strategy that will lead to the
dismantlement of Iraq.
To buy Turkish acquiescence, the administration appears to have
given Turkey the green light to send tens of thousands of troops
into northern Iraq. Their stated purpose is to prevent a flood of
Iraqi refugees into Turkey. But senior Turkish officials make clear
they want to use the troops to control Iraqi Kurds.
Although the White House cites the democratic institutions of Iraqi
Kurds as proof that Iraq can become a democracy after Saddam,
Bush officials seem ready to sell out the Kurds in pursuit of bases.
But if the United States allows the Turks to occupy northern Iraq,
it will precipitate the very scenario the Turks fear - a resurgence of
the Kurdish independence struggle inside both Iraq and Turkey.
New fighting between Turks and Kurds will bolster Islamists and
provide fertile ground for terrorism.
Time is short for Bush officials to rethink the issue of Turkey and
the Kurds and find a better way to meet Ankara's needs. This
issue will test whether the White House can cope with the
Pandora's box that an Iraq war will open.
If it can't cope, it had better call off the war.
Contact columnist Trudy Rubin at 215-854-5823 or trubin@phillynews.com.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
