Replies to post #187099 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

Brutal: Romney "The First Presidential Candidate Who, Wherever He Campaigns, Does Worse"

EXtina
Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 05:51 AM PDT

There's been a lot of analysis and discussion of Willard's total loser of a campaign. But columnist Mark Shields nails Romney's problem in a nutshell.

I have a different theory.

And the theory is that Mitt Romney is the first presidential candidate in -- certainly in the last 35 years who wherever he campaigns does worse. And I think that's his real problem.

The only thing Romney seems to excel at, is driving up his unfavorables with personal appearances.

Fast forward past the David Brooks inanities to the 1:07 mark where Mark Shields says it:

MARK SHIELDS: I have a different theory.

And the theory is that Mitt Romney is the first presidential candidate in -- certainly in the last 35 years who wherever he campaigns does worse. And I think that's his real problem.

I mean, for example, in Florida, his personal unfavorable rating in January was 29 percent. It went up to 35 percent in May. It's now at 48 percent.

In Ohio, the same thing. It went from 34 percent unfavorable in January, to 37 percent in May, to 49 percent in September.

The more they see him, the less they like him. And this is a real problem. It happened to Gerald Ford, the president of the United States, in 1976 in a marvelous campaign, a great campaign.

Stu Spencer, who was a strategist, met with the president in the White House with Bob Teeter and Dick Cheney, who was chief of the staff, said, Mr. President, you are a great president, but you are a terrible campaigner. Everywhere you go, your numbers go down. So that's -- they had a Rose Garden strategy.

I called Stu Spencer this week to talk about this. And he said, the problem that Mitt Romney has, he doesn't have a Rose Garden. I mean, he can't go back and be sort of in charge of the government. And I just think it's a real problem.

I agree with David on what he said about the 47 percent, because it played into a stereotype that already existed, a negative narrative about Romney, that he was out of touch. My wife, Ann, drives two Cadillacs. You want to bet $10,000, he said to Rick Perry, I mean, all of that. That tied in.

And the 47 percent speech that he gave on tape just reinforced that about what people already thought.

DAVID BROOKS: Yes.

Obviously his campaign knows it since Mitt continues to do more fundraisers than campaign appearances. Best to stick with the fundraisers Mitt, the milieu where you manage to speak comfortably, amongst your own kind. Campaign appearances don't work, ads don't work. Fortunately there are the debates to look forward to. After months and months of primaries and the general campaign, Romney can begin introducing himself to American voters.

PBS VIDEO at the link plus embedded links
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/01/1137906/-Brutal-Romney-The-First-Presidential-Candidate-Who-Wherever-He-Campaigns-Does-Worse

[F6]

New Washington Times/Zogby Telephone Poll - Obama Hits 50% and Now Leads Romney by 9; President Leads on Handling All Issues Tested

John Zogby, Contributor
10/01/2012 @ 11:26AM

A new Washington Times/Zogby Poll of 800 likely voters now shows President Barack Obama expanding his lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to 9 points – 50% to 41%. One in eleven voters (9%) are undecided. The live telephone survey was conducted September 27-29 and has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

The President’s lead is due to strong support from Democrats (89% to 7%), independents (45% to 32%), liberals (90% to 7%), moderates (62% to 24%), African Americans (94% to 1%), men (49% to 42%), women (50% to 40%), 18-29 year olds (56%-30%), and even voters over 65 (59% to 32%).

The new Washington Times/Zogby Poll also shows the President receiving 18% of conservatives (to Governor Romney’s 77%), just 2 points less than his showing in 2008. Mr. Romney leads among Republicans (86%-11%), whites (49%-41%), married voters (47% to 44%), evangelicals (48% to 42%).

The two candidates are tied among Catholics at 46% and nearly tied among the investor class (Obama 46%, Romney 45%). Mr. Obama maintains his lead among NASCAR voters (49%-44%) and the creative class (53% to 37%).

By a factor of two to one (49% to 26%), voters say that they expect that the President will win the first Presidential Debate on October 3. Voters are significantly more upbeat about their personal finances with 46% saying they are better off than they were 4 years ago and 49% saying that are not. There was a wide partisan chasm on this question. Significantly, majorities of the youngest and oldest voters feel they are better off.

On all issues tested, Mr. Obama outscored Mr. Romney on who is best to handle them: national security (Obama 50% to 42%); immigration (50% to 41%); jobs/economy (Obama 48% to 44%); energy (Obama 51% to 40%); and foreign affairs (Obama 52% to 42%).

Pollster John Zogby [evidently quoting himself]: “The October 3 debate can help significantly if he scores a knockout, puts the President on the defensive, and reveals some details on how his economic plan actually translates into jobs and growth. He will also be helped by any gaffe by the President, or anything that will allow the press to focus more attention on the President’s problems, less on the Governor’s. We have been talking about historical parallels to this election. Is it Carter vs. Reagan in 1980? Bush vs. Kerry in 2004? Or perhaps it can be Clinton vs. Dole in 1996? Mr. Romney has learned that it is not going to be enough to be just “not Obama”. Voters are feeling more upbeat but they could still choose the alternative to the incumbent if they feel they know who he is and what he will do.”

Zogby Polls have been widely acclaimed since 1994 as among the most accurate in elections. In this poll, slight weights were applied for party identification, represented at 37% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 28% independent.

2012 Forbes.com LLC™ (emphasis added)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2012/10/01/zogby-new-washington-timeszogby-telephone-poll-obama-hits-50-and-now-leads-romney-by-9-president-leads-on-handling-all-issues-tested/ [with comment]


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EDITORIAL: Rigging the polls
[re "Pro-Obama skew"]
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
September 25, 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/25/rigging-the-polls/ [with comments] [emphasis added]