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kiy

09/28/12 9:55 PM

#2618 RE: kiy #2617

You can see it on any timeframe...***edit
Edit add some from previous post...
(...but I'm not willing to give it any special definition on the lower timeframes below the 10 minute chart...)
This is the grail...3-5-10 moving averages...Ziko and I debated use of 2 and I won't go there...This was on the moving averages and other indicators like the RSI 2 setting that some think they can trade...
Grail averages are on the daily chart...each lower timeframe comes with the greater likelihood of false signals...Ziko took this system and basically was trading it on the 5 minute pulling very small profit 3-7 points on the E-mini/and some other contract traded in London...and he was willing to gamble at the upper Bollinger above the 3period average...=tooo much risk in that timeframe is automatically going to one day turn you into a bagholder...I claim 85% correct on my system...and a lot less stress and fewer mistakes because of this...
Ziko and I have a conflict at that level (5minute and lower= trading noise or the simple daily range) of trading...he would be one in 400 that could do that type of trading...stress level is way off the chart...if you just step down to the 15 minute you have time to breathe no hair trigger needed and you're immediately 3 times less likely of whipsaws or to get stuck holding the bag...Gaps happen intraday with news...15 minute has its risk but you can hold overnight and a market move against you is manageable...
Bollinger bands are price volatility (maybe along with the stochcastic the best indicator) and you can see the bands and triggers on any timeframe...My imagination is not willing to give 5minute signals credit for the next 10 point move...if your timing is correct the 5 minute just so happens to be in line with the "cycle" that the CCI TimeFrames represent =10-15-30-60minute all run together after 5 minute has done as many as 3-4 cycles on its own....I consider 5 minute more than 95% NOISE...the 10 and 15minute chart can be influence by the 5 minute chart...where the 30 minute isn't as likely to show any response to 5minute YoYo...30 minute is the best chart of all the intraday timeframes...it will catch the most points of a move from oversold to overbought...if you front run it with signals on 10 or 15 minute...5 minute will come with 4 false starts out of 5...30minute frequently will go more than 5 times without a false start...no false start or false signal== makes it to centerline from oversold or overbought without falling back into oversold/overbought.
(let me think some more about Ziko's triggers because of the part I don't agree with on the outer bands...and one day Ziko will get over being mad at me and then he can speak for himself...)...our disagreement is more about scalping and gambling then it is about the technicals..we both can see the signals but I will not call them anything other than a daytrade scalp with toooooooooo much risk...and stress...especially for anyone here to learn...they obviously need to master the basics and the level of inexperience here drives me crazy...
Anyway...
Signal is generated when (1) a reaction is obtained from price re-entering BB10.1 (upper band), AND (2) price going below EMA 3 on daily.
Bollinger band one deviation is what I showed Ziko along with the grail averages...they frequently trigger at the one deviation and sometimes it causes a big price move...Averages trigger as the one deviation band gets crossed...I said this is program trading getting triggered here...algoBots...HFT...Bollingers are an algorithm its obvious at the one deviation (BUT nobody talks about the one deviation; same rules apply here as the rules on 2 standard deviations and if you look you too can see the triggers...that's all there is to it...I see 30 minute have some significant triggers also at or very near the +/-100 CCI signals lines...but its not as predictable like the one deviation band...and grail averages...and if you use intraday signals on at the one deviation band expect more false signals...I don't use the bands for anything but to walk price and signals up to the daily chart signals...you are really front running the daily;;;only HFT RoBoTcrooks can front run intraday charts.
As far as the 3EMA..I can trade 3EMA and no other indicators...period...price has to fall below 3 moving to even get the average to start to turn...its a trigger that gets the attention as it (PRICE) crosses the 5 moving average...then trigger 10 moving...all you are doing is trading the Bollinger Bands with a 10moving average centerline..outer bands suggest overbought/oversold= a mean reversion=centerline 10moving average. These triggers happen and follow through is price behavior below the 10 average...truthfully the 10day average may be the most obvious trailing stop that nobody uses...
Hope makes sense...
3 dimensional trading is Intraday...daily...weekly...but can you really trade the weekly because the signals really don't print until the 5th day...weekly gave a very good sell signal in the middle of the week which had me cover a long position at 1404 and try to catch a quick drop below 1400...but it didn't happen...signal proved to be false and the CCI got pushed back into overbought and now doesn't even show that it had had a signal...can't trust weekly...for entering new positions...carved it in stone...
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bobjack

09/29/12 8:49 AM

#2622 RE: kiy #2617

KIY, Thank You Sir