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Replies to #37 on Oil and Gas Plays

lowman

10/11/05 6:15 PM

#746 RE: lowman #37

PTGC ...on the climb again?

lowman

10/15/05 7:11 AM

#1124 RE: lowman #37

PTGC +5% ...on an uptrend?

peoria

10/17/05 11:53 AM

#1237 RE: lowman #37

PTGC up 7%..

lowman

10/18/05 1:31 AM

#1289 RE: lowman #37

PTGC +5% ..nice uptrend!!

lowman

10/19/05 4:34 AM

#1361 RE: lowman #37

PTGC +10% more ...very nice uptrend going!

Follow the thread for chart.

lowman

10/24/05 8:15 AM

#1447 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -11% more Fri ...watch this one...check for dilution.

lowman

10/25/05 2:37 AM

#1505 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -14% ...and falling hard!!!

lowman

10/26/05 12:32 AM

#1547 RE: lowman #37

PTGC down 40% in 4 days, up 9% today!

swanlinbar

10/26/05 6:34 AM

#1558 RE: lowman #37

Natural gas prices soar

Cooler weather sends November futures up 10%, spot prices higher for the second straight session.
October 25, 2005: 4:38 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Natural gas prices spiked Tuesday as cool weather over much of the nation stirred early heating demand, traders said.

Natural gas futures jumped about 10 percent on the New York Mercantile Exchange while prices in the spot market climbed for the second straight session.

The November contract, which expires Thursday, rallied $1.37 to $14.375 per million British thermal units, easily eclipsing last week's $14.02 high and hitting the highest for a front month since the all-time record of $14.75 was hit on Oct. 5.

In the spot market, gas for Wednesday delivery at a benchmark supply hub in Louisiana jumped 95 cents, or 7 percent, to $13.90 per million British thermal units, its highest level since Hurricane Rita approached the Gulf Coast in late September, forcing the hub's closure.

On Monday, gas at the hub climbed 22 cents.

Current prices are nearly double the $7.75 of a year ago and are up from $4.78 in 2003.

"Maybe people are starting to think about winter. This is the first week they had to turn on their furnaces, but I think it's overdone. It's a little cooler this week, but it's going to warm up next week," said Jim Brunn at Forecast Trading, a commodity trading advisor in New Jersey.

Traders said the unexpected shot of cool air this week served as a reminder about the possibility of tight supplies this winter, noting the heating season will kick off with lower inventories than last year and reduced supplies after two hurricanes damaged Gulf Coast pipelines, platforms and processing plants.

A government report earlier this month predicted big jumps in heating bills for Americans this winter and high oil prices next year due to slightly colder temperatures and the impact of the hurricanes. (Full story.)

Temperatures in New York were expected to remain mostly below normal for the next week, with lows in the low- to mid-40s (Fahrenheit), while Chicago will start the period on the cool side, then moderate to above seasonal later in the week and next week, according to the AccuWeather Web site.

The National Weather Service six-to-10-day forecast issued Monday called for above normal temperatures for most of the nation, with seasonal or below seasonal readings expected in the East and Gulf coasts.

Inventories started in April with a huge cushion to 2004, but record heat this summer kicked up air conditioning demand, then the two Gulf Coast storms hit in August and September and reduced supplies.

Last week's storage report by the Energy Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories were 5 percent below last year, but still 2 percent above the 5-year average.

While inventories should be adequate to meet normal heating season needs, worries persist about reduced gas output in the Gulf Coast.

A government report Tuesday again showed an increase in the amount of offshore supplies shut in by the recent storms.


*********************************************************

What makes this spike in natty even more surprising is that its happening during bid week. Usually the contract finds some way to go down during this week, rather than up, to the detriment of the producers and to the benefit of the distributors/marketers.

Unless the price plummets back down tomorrow, 2/3rds of 4Q prices will have essentially been set for most producers, at prices that were unimaginable even just a few months ago.

swanlinbar

10/28/05 3:24 PM

#1710 RE: lowman #37

PTGC .67 has been on SHO list ,earnings out before 11/15 Keep on watch! imo

LINK: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regSHO.aspx

swanlinbar

10/29/05 10:34 AM

#1750 RE: lowman #37

Volatility Drives Natural Gas Market, but Bears Gain Ground
(Copyright © 2005 Energy Intelligence Group, Inc.)
Monday, October 31, 2005
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If there were one common theme for last week's natural gas market, it would most likely be wrapped up in one word -- volatile. Oscillating technical indicators, increased cold weather demand and hurricane-related loss of demand created huge price movements. Factor in bullish market hype from one of the largest players in the industry versus yet another larger-than-expected storage data report, and you had all the makings for a wildly churning market.

No doubt much of that volatility can be attributed to cash market bullishness stemming from the Nor'easter that blanketed areas along the Eastern Seaboard. But what many didn't take into consideration was the mitigating loss of gas demand in Florida due to Hurricane Wilma.



As Wilma came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane to the southern end of the Sunshine State, up to 6 million residential and business electricity consumers lost power, and some areas may be without power for up to three weeks. Since a large percentage of that power is gas-fired, the loss in demand partly counterbalanced the increase in demand in areas of the Northeast.

An analysis of pipeline demand using Gas Metrics data showed that while areas along the Northeast peaked at about an additional 1.5 Bcf/day of gas last week due to the drop in temperatures, Florida lost about 500 MMcf/d of demand due to the hurricane. But while the cold-weather demand dissipated going into last weekend, demand loss in Florida will continue to pile up until power is fully restored.

As for Gulf of Mexico production, the daily Minerals Management Service report turned the corner and started to show gains again last week, moving the market in the right direction after several days of losses from Hurricane Wilma shut-ins. As of Friday, the MMS reported that 67.8% of oil and 55% of natural gas production still remained off line in the Gulf. However, Gulf Coast production appears to be coming back at a steady pace as Enterprise Products Partners said last week that Toca was up to 280 MMcf/d and continuing to ramp up daily. They also noted good recovery in some other Louisiana facilities.

Other market movers for the week surrounded the release of the Energy Information Administration gas storage data report that was higher than anticipated. The EIA reported injections of 77 Bcf or 11.0 Bcf/d for the week ended Oct 21, raising gas in storage to 3,139 Bcf. The report was notably higher than the Nymex ICAP auction, which implied a storage build of 67.1 Bcf, or 9.5 Bcf/d, which was also within expectations of most industry analysts. However, earlier in the week Gas Metrics pipeline data suggested a storage injection in line with the prior week's 75 Bcf (see p16). If it were not for the loss of 37.9 Bcf for the same period due to shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico, the storage injection for last week could have been as high as 115 Bcf.

"We now have solid irrefutable evidence of price-induced demand destruction, as we are seeing is a clear trend of higher than expected storage builds -- even with a large portion of Gulf production still shut in," one gas trader said. For this week, early Gas Metrics data shows the possibility of around a 50 Bcf build in gas inventories, while other industry estimates are in the 25 to 35 Bcf range.

The Nymex December gas futures contract tumbled lower last week as storage inventories swelled. At the end of trading on Friday, the December gas contract closed at $13.055/MMBtu, down 62.9¢ on the day, but up 18.3¢ for the week. Earlier in the week, the November gas futures contract rolled off the board at $13.832/MMBtu, down 20.8¢, while the Nymex 3-day settlement average is $14.070/MMBtu. The settlement was 7.5¢ lower than last month and $6.206 higher than the November 2004 contract settlement.

Despite a bullish conference call by Goldman Sachs to the industry last week calling for the possibility of $20 gas futures this winter, indicators suggest that prices are likely to grind lower this week. Due to a warming trend across much of the country expected for the next two weeks, both crude oil and natural gas futures are likely to drift lower. However traders still need be cautious for the usual dose of bullishness that can emerge at moment's notice and inject a high degree of volatility into gas prices.

Even though the December crude oil market has been meandering around $59 to $61 a barrel for the past couple of weeks, current technical indicators point to an erosion down to the $58 to $59 level this week, while December natural gas futures could very well grind down to the $12.25 area before buyers come back into the market to take prices up again.

-- Alan Lammey



lowman

11/02/05 7:00 AM

#1855 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -8% more.


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P.S. If you read this post, please let me know by way of PM. I'm just curious if anybody reads these. If not, why continue to waste my time? TIA :-)

oilandgascentral@aol.com

lowman

11/03/05 2:17 AM

#1912 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -6% ...falling?

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lowman

11/04/05 5:44 AM

#2008 RE: lowman #37

PTGC +10% ...broke the fall.

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swanlinbar

11/09/05 3:21 PM

#2250 RE: lowman #37

Just bought another 2500 @.63,cold weather coming soon,i hope!Earnings should be out next week.

lowman

11/10/05 5:26 AM

#2266 RE: lowman #37

PTGC +6% ...starting new run?

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swanlinbar

11/14/05 1:09 PM

#2372 RE: lowman #37

PTGC earnings should be out Tuesday or Wednesday!Up today

lowman

11/16/05 5:32 AM

#2456 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -15%

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lowman

11/29/05 6:23 AM

#2785 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -11% and falling? ...

Follow "msg#" for chart.

lowman

11/30/05 6:03 AM

#2822 RE: lowman #37

PTGC -4% more! ...

Follow "msg#" for chart.