Replies to post #92265 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[exwannabe]

Thanks for re-instating iwfal's post. Now I hope somebody can blow a hole in his reasoning.

Clark was not making any statement about what he thinks the odds of a P3 success are. The numbers he was presenting was just an example to help demonstrate why the orriginal post was incorrect in its numbers.

Very simply, there is no way to use stats to get an answer to the question "what are the odds of the P3 working" w/o making assumptions about bavi.

You can use stats to help you in some ways. You can say something like "If bavi truly has an H/R of 67% then the odds of a P3 working with N=300 are 90%" [I have no idea if those numbers resonable]. But this relies on an assumption as to the true effectivness of bavi,

What are clearly statiscally unsound are:

1) To say that a P value means the drug is 98% to have really worked.
2) To say that the "true" H/R is 65% based on the P2 trial.