All I know for certain is that there is no reason for this stock to go up until phase II trials are completed...
That's not the way the market works. You'll see a boost on completion of tox, a boost on completion of additional efficacy testing (assuming positive results), a boost when the date to start human clinical trials is announced, and a large step up in price if Phase I is successful. If you wait until positive Phase II results are out, as you suggest, you will be buying with the herd in the double digits.