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09/30/05 2:33 PM

#63059 RE: bobs10 #63056

Re: we'll have to see just how those soon to be released new INTC products are going to bury AMD in a sea of red ink.

That's an exaggeration of what I had claimed. Not surprising, given how people here like to paint things in black and white. All I have said about AMD is that their market gains will stop dead in their tracks and likely recede somewhat. Whether this means a "sea of red" or not will depend on how they manage their capacity and ASPs.

Intel has a very strong mobile platform next year, a server platform that will close the performance gap while offering competitive features, and begin moving later in the year towards a power efficient micro-architecture that will defeat AMD's last real benefit of lower power. Based on this micro-architecture, Intel can do all the same things AMD has planned: quad core, CPU coherent links, integrated memory controller, and maybe even integrated PCI-Express. Meanwhile, it will likely add features that AMD hasn't even planned to implement, such as the rumored Java acceleration reported some months back. While it's true that the actual performance and power aspects are not yet certain, I expect them to at least be competitive, if not ahead.

AMD has only gained this year because their advantage has been so solid that few can deny it. Their server parts have been dual core across the product line, while Intel has only had dual core in the single socket market. That's a definite and obvious advantage, but it won't last. Having much lower power dissipation is also an advantage that won't last. Ergo, AMD won't continue gaining share, and there's no miracle cure on the horizon that will give AMD the same advantage they have today. Not even in the most enthusiastically optimistic roadmap predictions is AMD going to deliver something in the next year that will be remotely comparable to the conditions that exist today. As soon as you realize that, you will begin the road to discovering that much of your irrational optimism is unfounded.

Re: INTC is a fatted hog ready for slaughter and you guys are like the parasites that live on such beasts, too close to see the doors of the abatoir directly ahead.

It's going to be very humorous to revisit this line in another 12 months. Don't worry about forgetting it, because I'll remind you.