These are good questions, while the answers (at least mine) can only be poor.
It's definitely sure that "they" know what they do now and in the near future, but I'm not so sure that the "get-out"-scenario has already been written (a weak aspect of American politics in the last years, if I may add this). Beside the Millstein plan, it's Nirwana.
In the case of AIG, they found a solution to take over the majority of the company for a limited period of time while avoiding to take everything on the bugdet. If they don't exercise the warrants and perhaps additionally screw the rest of the commons here, there must be a reason (e.g. a solution is unknown or too far away). To hope for a restoration of the juniors' dividends before the taxpayers are (almost completly) repaid has always been an illusion by the way; the goal is (coming near to) redemption value.
What's the worst-case? IMO a wind-down that means a complete run-off within 20-30 yrs, while a new Federal Mortgage Insurance will be wound up starting before 2018. No transformation of assets or computers, maybe some of the staff changing their seats. C-Ship lasting for 20-30 more yrs, no clear possibility to sue until then. Our heirs could continue the fight...
If that doesn't happen, anything else will give us something above the current prices.
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