Replies to post #4727 on Keeping It Simple

[eastunder]

CPST

[eastunder]

Crapstone:

Busting a move



Yet so fragile: Because of that

Crappy gap. :(

[eastunder]

CPST:

.90

[eastunder]

CPST:

[eastunder]

CPST open gap .90

50 day currently .90

Bollies spread

Current pps .97 2/22/13

[eastunder]

CPST- intraday








On and prepping to Move above fin resistance

[eastunder]

CPST intraday

8-11-13

1.16


Support/Resistance

Type Value Conf.  
 resist. 1.58 1  
 resist. 1.51 4  
 resist. 1.48 4  
 resist. 1.42 4  
 resist. 1.39 4  
 resist. 1.36 3  
 resist. 1.33 2  
 resist. 1.31 4  
 resist. 1.25 2  
 supp    1.15 2  
 supp    1.09 4  
 supp    1.05 2  
 supp    1.00 4  
 supp    0.98 2  
 supp    0.95 8  
 supp    0.90 2  
 supp    0.85 14 

Read more at http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=cpst&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock#v5tZGVDA65c4PTyF.99



Open Gaps

Direction Date range  
 up May-28-2013 1.03 to 1.08

200 day @ 1.02

[eastunder]

CPST:

1.14

up May-28-2013 1.03 to 1.08








Support/Resistance

Type Value Conf.  
 resist. 1.58 1  
 resist. 1.51 2  
 resist. 1.48 4  
 resist. 1.42 2  
 resist. 1.39 2  
 resist. 1.35 2  
 resist. 1.33 2  
 resist. 1.31 4  
 resist. 1.25 3  
 resist. 1.23 2  
 resist. 1.14 4  
 supp    1.11 4  
 supp    1.09 4  
 supp    1.00 4  
 supp    0.98 2  
 supp    0.95 4  
 supp    0.90 2  
 supp    0.85 14 

Read more at http://www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/analysis.pl?symb=cpst&num1=1&cobrand=&mode=stock#EOVsix7ztq0hDPrs.99

[eastunder]

CPST

Open Gap  
  
 Direction   Date       range  
 up       May-28-2013  1.03 to 1.08 

[eastunder]

CPST

Cowen initiates coverage on Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST) with a Outperform. PT $1.90.

http://www.streetinsider.com/New+Coverage/Cowen+Starts+Capstone+Turbine+%28CPST%29+at+Outperform/8751138.html

[eastunder]

CPST - Tracking
11/22 numbers





200 day currently @ 1.12



fin line @ 1.10






Support/Resistance

Type Value Conf.
resist. 1.51 2
resist. 1.48 4
resist. 1.42 2
resist. 1.40 6
resist. 1.33 5
resist. 1.29 3
resist. 1.24 12
supp 1.18 2
supp 1.14 4
supp 1.12 8
supp 1.09 2
supp 1.07 2

[eastunder]

CPST

Gap fill




current numbers at time of post:
200d @1.134
bb @1.138

[eastunder]

CPST Intraday

1.47

1-08-14



9 day @ 1.33
5 day @ 1.40



Bollies too spread: Stoch RSi still>80: looking for line below 80 to appear.

[eastunder]

CPST

5's crossing above the 14
Perhaps taking order again? Earnings disappointment consolidation about over, by chance?

Tracking:

1.59
2/16

4 pps > 1.64 and with volume
otherwise 50 day again?

[eastunder]

CPST tracking: 1.55 area and 1.38 area
3-3-14


1.65

50d 1.55
bb 1.38

Fin at apx 1.55

1.55



ppo just now turning? Needs a little time - so May be bb instead
currently at 1.38 and rising.

Tracking both



fin sup. line breaks at < 50 day (cur. 1.55)
1.40 base (aside from fin line)

wcs: 1.20

[eastunder]

CPST intraday

2.38

3/21/14

[eastunder]

CPST

4-17-14

2.13


http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=cpst

[eastunder]

CPST Intraday

2.14 4/24



Intraday

[eastunder]

CPST Intraday

2.06 4/30


Capstone Turbine Announces Common Stock Offering


CHATSWORTH, Calif., May 1, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST) (the "Company") today announced that it has entered into an underwriting agreement to sell 18,825,000 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $1.70 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $32.0 million. The shares were allocated to a single institutional investor. The net proceeds from the sale of the shares, after underwriting discounts and commissions, will be approximately $30.2 million. The offering is expected to close on or about May 6, 2014, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions. The Company intends to use the proceeds from the offering to fund general working capital requirements and for other general corporate purposes


Intraday

[eastunder]

CPST pinch watch

1.33 5/11

[eastunder]

CPST 1.03 gap

Weekly Finviz

1.03 May 24, 2013

CPST Weekly Finviz

[eastunder]

CPST

1.23 9/10/14

StochRSI

[eastunder]

Capstone Turbine: Will Announce First Quarterly Profit Ever?

Oct. 6, 2014 7:45 AM ET

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2541515-capstone-turbine-will-announce-first-quarterly-profit-ever


Disclosure: The author is long CPST.


Summary
•Growing Backlog and Margin Improvement.
•Strong Order Flow Including Russia.
•Energy Sector Bottoming Setting Up A Bounce Opportunity.

Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) continues to remain a strong candidate for above average returns for investors. It closed Friday, October 3, 2014 at $1.03, but made a higher low following a 52 week low the previous day. The chart set up is very similar to the set up I noted for my last Capstone article. Capstone has had steady order flow, but there seems to be a current sentiment that investors need to see orders shipped, not just flow to make further investments in the company. The growing backlog seems to be part of the misunderstanding. The correlation some are making is that since backlog is increasing that orders are not shipping. This is simply incorrect and the wrong argument to make against this stock. A simple look at the companies Annual Report, latest 10-K, or 10-Q will show this is very short sighted. For FY14 Capstone shipped 110 megawatts or 671 units compared to 628 units or 103 megawatts for the year prior. Here is the cumulative chart from the annual report:



In my opinion, it is easier to look at megawatts over units because of the variability in unit costs for the different models. One megawatt equates to roughly 1 million dollars in revenue generation. The stock has also been attacked by known shorts, especially during the announcement of Russian sanctions. The company has said repeatedly that current sanctions do not materially affect its business with Russia at this time. In fact, the Sochi Olympic complex was recently announced as part of a 5.5 megawatt deal. The backlog is a substantial benefit for investors, currently standing at 188 megawatts, 820 units, or $175 million dollars in deferred revenue. There is additional backlog of 55 million dollars for its service contracts that can last for nine years. Service revenue accounts for approximately 7% of total revenue generation and is an important component of the operation. I can not over emphasize to investors the impact that this $230 million dollar backlog can have for a company with a market cap of $339.5 million dollars. Backlog is a primary indicator of revenue growth and a store of value for investors that will be unleashed on a profit announcement.

Previously, I noted that based on the last 10-Q, the order flow to that point was worth somewhere between 7.4 - 9.5 million dollars. Since that time there have been significant orders totaling a minimum of 18 megawatts. Conservatively, this represents $25 - $30 million dollars in revenue this quarter so far, not including the 9 megawatt service contract. Service revenue should provide an additional $2.5 million in revenue based on the 7% contribution rate. Capstone has running liabilities of roughly 9 million dollars per quarter, if the company achieves a 20% margin it requires roughly $45 million in revenue to achieve a profit. That leaves a 10-15 million dollar gap to profitability. There will be a nice earnings surprise this quarter if the company executes unannounced orders, delivers backlog, or achieves it's 35% margin goal.

The energy sector is a laggard when compared to the Standard and Poor's 500 for the year, but has really diverged on a three month basis. With current government policy I expect the higher demand for alternative energy sources will continue as oil prices recover. While oil is down for the year, natural gas is up nearly 20%. Natural gas usage is expected to rise as good supply, tighter emission standards, and efficiency requirements make it the alternative of choice for industrial use. However, over the last three months both have declined nearly 10%. It looks as though we may be bottoming, both the natural gas ETF (NYSEARCA:UNG) and oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO) are at lower trendline support, and a bounce in the broader energy market could also lift shares of Capstone. Here is the CPST chart from FinViz.com:





CPST is oversold at these levels as well and may be worth a look, especially with energy market improvement. The stock has both a falling wedge and descending channel pattern, with the falling wedge the longer term dominant, beginning in March of this year. RSI is bottoming, MACD is flat, and the Stochastics are very oversold. Previous trips to this stochastic level on the chart have resulted in nice bounce trade opportunities. Thursday, October 2, 2014, the stock hit $1.00, a new 52 week low but put in a higher low on the following day indicating rejection. The stock was met with resistance at $1.05 on both days. Capstone has decent institutional ownership at 43.5% while 15% of the float is short. I believe shorts will begin to cover into earnings which will take 28 days at the current average volume. The average target price by analysts is $1.89. I maintain a long-term core position for this stock as an investment, but I plan to trade this level with a .99 cent stop loss. I will look to scale at 20, 50, and 200dma targets with the expectation the 50 day moving average won't be breached without a significant order announcement or a profitable quarter, which would be a catalyst for a major breakout.
________________________________________________________________


Active Fin:

10/10/14 .9231

[eastunder]

CPST

.74

1-13-15



9,9,9,9,8,0,5,5,5,1.5
2.5,2.5,2.5,1,2,2.5,2.5,2.5,0,0 (1/13/15+)
11.5,11.5,11.5,10,10,2.5,7.5,7.5,5,1.5
78.5

[eastunder]

CPST 5-8-15

.56

+0.0117 (+2.15%) currently on 894,152 Below Avg Volume at 2:09pm NY time

"Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently below mid-term; AND below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BEARISH in short-term; and BEARISH in mid-long term.
CPST has closed above bottom band by 13.2%. (yesterday) Bollinger Bands are 41.1% wider than normal. (last seen January 26th where pps rode the bollie down as well) in The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to CPST's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 0 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue."

~ Stoxline

http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=cpst



A pivot low is a sign it might not. (short term)

How is this gonna play out? Trend? Pivot low? Who wins:

Tracking

Current conditions in point:



Januarys pivot low as seen: 22nd, 23rd, 24th



Pivot low defined:



A minimum of 3 candles to complete pivot
1 new low
2 lower low
3 close above candle 2

at least 3 candles are required to complete the pivot. 4,5 or 6 may be required.

[eastunder]

CPST:

And then there comith Capitulation.

CMF, Acc/dis prepping to cross, Pinch developing

Cpps .4599

currently On upper fin
lower fin @ .42ish

Can they pull a rabbit outta their hat?

Earnings on June 15, 2015.

Rise into earnings? Rise with extension news?

all time low .39

What is the dirty little secret you are hiding, CPST?





Been there - done that.

[eastunder]

CPST Pivot low, pinch,
5 day .454

Cpps .46

50 day .586

[eastunder]

Zacks Rating on Capstone Turbine Corporation




By Glenn Carroll -

Jun 5, 2015


Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) remains a strong buy in the latest set of rankings. The shares has received an average rating of 1.4 by 5 analysts. Experts at Zacks have given it a short term rating of 2, which means that the investors can Buy for the short term positions. Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST): The mean short term price target for Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) has been established at $1.43 per share. The higher price target estimate is at $2 and the lower price target estimate is expected at $1 according to 5 Analyst. The stock price is expected to vary based on the estimate which is suggested by the standard deviation value of $0.6

The stock has received coverage from different analysts. In a research note released to the investors, Roth Capital downgrades its rating on Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST). Investors must note that the brokerage house has a Neutral rating on the shares of the company. Previously, the company had a rating of Buy. The Equity Firm lowers its price target from $1 per share to $0.7 per share.

Shares of Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) ended Thursday session in red amid volatile trading. The shares closed down 0.0085 points or 1.49% at $0.5609 with 2,675,879 shares getting traded. Post opening the session at $0.59, the shares hit an intraday low of $0.5457 and an intraday high of $0.594 and the price vacillated in this range throughout the day. The company has a market cap of $185 million and the number of outstanding shares has been calculated to be 330,380,000 shares. The 52-week high of Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) is $1.62 and the 52-week low is $0.4128.

Capstone Turbine Corporation (Capstone) develops, manufactures, markets and services microturbine technology solutions for use in stationary distributed power generation applications, including cogeneration (combined heat and power (CHP), integrated combined heat and power (ICHP), and combined cooling, heat and power (CCHP)), renewable energy, natural resources and critical power supply. In addition, its microturbines can be used as battery charging generators for hybrid electric vehicle applications. Microturbines allow customers to produce power on-site in parallel with the electric grid or stand alone when no utility grid is available. Several technologies are used to provide on-site power generation (distributed generation) ,such as reciprocating engines, solar power, wind powered systems and fuel cells.

[eastunder]

Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST) reported Q4 EPS of ($0.05), $0.04 worse than the analyst estimate of ($0.01). Revenue for the quarter came in at $29.9 million versus the consensus estimate of $35.35 million.

Capstone's loss from operations for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2015 was $14.1 million, compared to $3.8 million for the third quarter of Fiscal 2015, and $3.1 million for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2014.

At March 31, 2015, cash and cash equivalents totaled $32.2 million, compared to $40.9 million at December 31, 2014, and $27.9 million at March 31, 2014

[eastunder]

CPST

7/22

$0.34 +0.0318 (+10.26%) $0.34/19 $0.34/7 1,134,391 Above Avg

pinching/tracking

NTS:

Capstone August 27, 2015, 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time.
RS vote (between 1-for-5 and 1-for-20, as determined in the sole discretion of our Board of Directors)

Currently:

Macd (or ppo in this case)yet to cross
A/D yet to cross



E & DS





Simps:
5d@.34
open gap down Jun-16-2015 0.55 to 0.49

Bullish engulfing? Reversal?

Wee's still unflipped

PPS still below 5



Fin tgt sits with gap down tgt

[eastunder]

Capstone Turbine (CPST) Reports In-Line Q1 EPS


Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ: CPST) reported Q1 EPS of ($0.02), in-line with the analyst estimate of ($0.02). Revenue for the quarter came in at $27 million versus the consensus estimate of $25.38 million.

Total backlog as of June 30, 2015 was $160.5 million compared with $175.2 million as of June 30, 2014, and $165.7 million as of March 31, 2015.

Gross profit margin improved more than 200 basis points to 17% for the first quarter of fiscal 2016, compared with 15% for the first quarter of fiscal 2015, and was $4.7 million for the first quarter of 2016 compared with $3.4 million for the first quarter a year ago. The increase in the gross margin during the first quarter of fiscal 2016 compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2015 was primarily the result of a shift in product mix of $1.1 million, as the company sold a higher number of its C1000 Series systems and includes revenue that was recognized without associated direct material costs from prior periods, lower warranty expense of $0.2 million and lower production and service center overhead expenses of $0.1 million. The positive impact of these factors was partially offset by the adverse impact of an increase in royalty expense of $0.1 million.

Research & Development expenses for the first quarter of fiscal 2016 were $2.4 million, compared with $2.3 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2015.

Selling, General & Administrative expenses for the first quarter of fiscal 2016 were $8.1 million, which includes $0.5 million of severance and other one-time termination benefit charges, compared with $7.8 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2015.

[eastunder]

CPST

[eastunder]

Capstone Turbine Corporation (www.capstoneturbine.com) (CPST), the world's leading clean technology manufacturer of microturbine energy systems, will effect a 1-for-20 reverse stock split of the company's issued and outstanding common stock effective at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on November 6, 2015. The company's common stock will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis at the open of business on November 9, 2015.

[eastunder]

CPST 1/20 Reverse split effective 11-6-15 at close

.20 to 4.00



“ARTICLE III.



(a) The Corporation is authorized to issue two classes of shares to be designated, respectively, “Common Stock” and “Preferred Stock.” The total number of shares which the Corporation shall have authority to issue is five hundred twenty-five million (525,000,000) shares. The total number of shares of Common Stock which the Corporation shall have authority to issue is five hundred fifteen million (515,000,000) shares, and the par value of each share of Common Stock is one-tenth of one cent ($0.001). The total number of shares of Preferred Stock which the Corporation shall have authority to issue is ten million (10,000,000) shares, and the par value of each share of Preferred Stock is one-tenth of one cent ($0.001). The Preferred Stock may be issued from time to time, in one or more series, each series to be appropriately designated by a distinguishing letter or title, prior to the issue of any shares thereof. Effective as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on the date of the filing of this Certificate of Amendment to the Second Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Corporation (the “Effective Time”), each twenty (20) shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding at such time shall be combined into one (1) share of Common Stock (the “Reverse Stock Split”). The par value of the Common Stock following the Reverse Stock Split shall remain $0.001 per share. No fractional shares will be issued in connection with the Reverse Stock Split. Stockholders of record who otherwise would be entitled to receive fractional shares, will be entitled to rounding up of their fractional share to the nearest whole share. Each certificate that immediately prior to the Effective Time represented shares of Common Stock (an “Old Certificate”) shall thereafter represent that number of shares of Common Stock into which the shares of Common Stock represented by the Old Certificate shall have been combined, subject to the elimination of fractional share interests as described above.”

[eastunder]

CPST

1.88 11-25-15

[eastunder]

CPST

1.50 12-9-15

[eastunder]

CPST

12/23/15

1.43

[eastunder]

CPST 1.46

[eastunder]

CPST

(RS adjusted)

1.79 piv

[eastunder]

CPST

[eastunder]

CPST

1.78 down .73 on Registration/Pricing

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/capstone-turbine-corporation-announces-pricing-134520658.html

Every two shares of Common Stock will be sold with one Series A Warrant to purchase one share of Common Stock at a collective negotiated price of $3.50.

[eastunder]

CPST

[eastunder]

CPST

1.53

[eastunder]

CPST

cpps 1.45

[eastunder]

Analyst Actions: Capstone Turbine Shares Add 12%; Oppenheimer Upgrades to Outperform From Perform
11:54 AM ET, 10/04/2017 - MT Newswires

11:54 AM EDT, 10/04/2017 (MT Newswires) -- Capstone Turbine (CPST) shares were higher 12% on Wednesday as Oppenheimer upgraded the rating on the company's stock to outperform from perform while introducing a $2 price target.

"First, the company has effectively rationalized its overhead while working through a difficult period for demand," Oppenheimer said in a note to clients. "At the same time, with revenue approaching $100 million annually, CPST shares are trading at an enterprise value of $24 million including $10 million in net cash."

The broker said it expects order activity to pick up and estimates the company will reach EBITDA break-even in FY19 as that order activity translates into sales growth.

"We are introducing a $2 PT and note that, if the company reaches profitability, there is potential upside to our PT," Oppenheimer said.

Price: 0.78, Change: +0.08, Percent Change: +11.84

[eastunder]

CPST



Print

[eastunder]

CPST

3-9-19

.80

Capstone (Nasd: CPST)

SEC, nasdaq,

ShortSqueeze, yahoo

Finviz, StockTA, Stoxline,