Replies to post #4359 on Patriot Coal Corporation (fka PCXCQ)

[marayatano]

This BK is really about the creditors vs. the Union and Patriot taking advantage of the bankruptcy code to cancel unprofitable contracts (out of the money) contracts/reorganization/deal with the Union/Union liabilities/bounce some liabilities back to Peabody, the original parent who spun off patriot.

Equity is just the audience and not a player in this BK. The longer this BK drags, equity is as good as toast.

I only see equity surviving in some form if this is a SHORT bankruptcy proceeding, otherwise... don't bet your lunch money.

The army of lawyers and restructuring firms/advisers are burning through equity as we speak. It is in THEIR (Attorneys & Co) best interest to drag this out. $$$$

imo

[LostBall]

Hey, frankj. Hope you are doing good. Still here. Being patient. I think it favors the company's public perception for the hearing to remain in New York, however, even with a change of venue, the case is heard by a judge, not a jury. So, facts should remain facts no matter the city they are heard in. The union knows re-negotiating their contracts, pensions, etc, is one of the main reasons PCX filed. They are going to do whatever they can to protect what they have. This is one of their tactics. I do not think it will work, but hey, what do they have to lose.

There is a 90 day period where no one but the company can do anything regarding the bk. Once this period is over, I feel like an equity committee will be forthcoming. There are to many large investors, funds, that have too much to lose to go down without a fight. I believe the stock price will spike off of any talk of this taking place.

I realize, as someone mentioned last night, the real winners are the lawyers in this process. Yes, they will burn some of the cash trying the case, however, 500 million is alot to burn through. Think of it this way, even if they burned through 400 million to the lawyers, etc, of the assets over the liabilitiies, which is a high estimate, imo, that still leaves over $ 1.00 per share of equity leftover. We are trading under .20. That is a quintuple from here.

I am hanging around. Actually bought more a couple of weeks ago below .12. There is value here, imo, and we are very early in this process. I am still suprised it is trading this low.