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surfcat

08/20/12 7:25 AM

#3071 RE: 2bit-nothing #3067

Multi year lows, I was looking at a booklet of weekly bar-charts, the pattern looks similar what nat-gas looks like now for weekly bottoms and bonds, ten yr notes, soybeans, wheat and corn for weekly tops.. I was also buying based price moving above/below a sideways channel.(strangles)

Not all the calls were winners, some expired worthless even though I had planned on selling them if premium paid shrunk in half. The reason I did not was because I was paying a hundred dollars per option contract(now I pay as low as seventy five cents per option) and was trading on emotion believing that with the time remaining that price will move up before expiring. Even though price did move up it did not move fast enough(speed factor) thus ending up worthless because not in the money enough.

While some of the winners could have been bigger winners had I not closed them, for example coffee call, I sold it in May(6 weeks after buying it) when I had several month left till expiration. That call expired being worth over sixty thousand because of price rocketing fast towards expiration due to a big freeze. Other commodity calls I sold to late and gave back profits in the case of soybean meal.

I like futures because I don't have to factor in Theta(time decay).