Why I’m Not Buying the Romney Rally - August 16, 2012, 10:46 pm 374 Comments
one bit .. of Nate Silver's 'Ryan bounce' gripe with Intrade ..
If I were making a bet this week, instead, the basis for it would be whatever hypothesis I had about the impact that Mr. Ryan will have on the race in the long term, which a few days of polling won’t tell us very much about. Or perhaps I’d look at the economic news, which has been slightly favorable to President Obama this week.
Thursday’s Polls
On Thursday, there were new polls in from Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania — and perhaps most important, Wisconsin. Most of this data postdates the announcement of Mr. Ryan.
CNN’s poll of Wisconsin gave Mr. Obama a four-point lead there; this is CNN’s first poll of the state, so there are no trendlines for comparison. This poll, however, is worse for Mr. Obama than it looks. It was a survey of registered voters, not likely voters, and registered voter polls typically exaggerate the Democratic candidate’s standing by about two percentage points.
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