Evaluating the real estate situation is a very interesting topic. Permits are just one of the demographics of a complex subject. You have to sell the home you build. I live in a terrific area.. real estate is deader than dead.
The only thing I can come up with is rates remain low and buyers have been on strike even in the lower priced market for some years now. Is the exuberant Manhattan $50 million market in condos a precursor to a significant decline... I don't know.
The East coast contrasts with the West coast...but thats the norm right..??
Another perspective, over the last 40 or so years, 1 million starts used to be considered the level of disaster and despair...a longer term chart is still pretty depressing...no pun intended.