Shortly after Piecyk presented his $1000 target, QCOM ran up to $800 (not adjusted for splits). Obviously, Eric and Slacker sold shares during the run to the top.
<< "Overall though, I do have to thank Piecyk....I owe him quite a bit of money :-)" ... So do I. ... Does that mean you shorted the stock? >>
No it does not. It does mean that I took down my QCOM position 25% at midday on 12/30/1999 at $92 (then $184). That's $88.8 per share profit on a position initiated a year earlier at $3.2 and ~$34/share of that profit was strictly attributable to the Piecyk effect and the ongoing irrational exuberance of the Y2K meltup.
Hindsight is always better than foresight but I do not begrudge the fact that less than a week later QCOM shares nudged $100 briefly before falling like a knife and that I waited till QCOM caught a dead cat bounce in March/April 2000 to take it down another 25% at ~$69 and waited again to take it down another 25% at $43 in January 2001, by which time I was about 80% cash equivalents or corporate or muni bonds.
Subsequently I added a chunk in June 2002 to go OW (by my standards) and I sold that chunk in April 2004 appreciated ~150%, and the 25% of my original position that I still hold is fun money since it is essentially pure profit. I held out this spring for a sub $30 QCOM price to add -- even though that would have put me OW again -- but obviously I didn't catch. Hopefully we'll never see this years lows again, but one never knows..
OT: Very interesting interactive map here from RigLogix of the Rita tragedy in progress comparing it to the recent Katrina tragedy ...
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