Replies to post #14723 on Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[Eric]

Toasting Walter Piecyk ...

<< What do you think of these assumptions? 3 Billion phones sold in 2010? Probably >>

That equates to ~3 billion mobile phones in use by 2010 end, not 3 billion phones sold in 2010.

Subscriber growth remains surprisingly vibrant and will for several years as emerging markets are tapped, but by 2010 rate of growth will have severely slowed, and replacement sales will carry the day. With new net adds significantly reduced entering 2010 a 1.2 billion forecast of phones sold in 2010 is aggressive. Global ASP of handsets today is in the $125 range. A forecast of $180 ASP in 2010 is over the top. Best case, ASP will be flat. Likely there will be erosion.

Edit: Echoing Slacker's thoughts:

"Overall though, I do have to thank Piecyk....I owe him quite a bit of money :-)".

So do I.

- Eric -