If the election were held today, Silver writes, Obama would have an 80 percent chance of winning re-election. But things could change quickly — Silver's model projects that Obama has a 60 percent chance of winning in November.
Some of Silver's model's key projections:
* If the election were held today, Obama would win approximately 300 electoral votes to Romney's 238. He would win the popular vote by a 50.5 to 47.9 percentage.
* In the November 6 forecast, Silver's model has Obama winning roughly 291 electoral votes to Romney's 247.
* Popular vote in the November 6 model: Obama 50.5, Romney 48.4.
* Together, there's about a 5 percent chance either Romney or Obama could theoretically win the electoral college and lose the popular vote.
Here's why things could change in a hurry, though, and why Romney still has a good shot: The economic news over the next five months. Silver's model forecasts based on polls and economic indicators, though he notes those are "a pretty rough guide five months before an election."
Silver outlines where campaigns will likely shift their attention this summer: the so-called "tipping-point case."
That, for Obama, bodes well: He holds general advantages in each of the top six states. Silver warns, however, that these states generally have improving economies when compared to the national average. If these economies turn, however, that would spell trouble.
This morning, on MSNBC's Morning Joe, NBC political director Chuck Todd admitted their poll had a skewed sample (around 3:50 mark) and stated that, if this poll were weighted similarly to their last poll, the race would have been unchanged, instead of Obama extending his lead over Romney to 6 points. (Of course, this invites the question as to why they didn't use the same weighting in thi
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