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BowlerBob

07/24/12 9:45 PM

#35681 RE: Conrad #35678

Conrad,

I agree with you that it is, essentially, TA. I also agree with you that there are many other methods that could be used to acheive the same purpose and, no, it isn't clear why he uses AIM for this, rather than another method.

I am personally convinced that it has to do with his "Comfort Zone" toward investing. Using AIM for TA is more of a "MACRO" approach, once a month check after initially finding the "candidate" mandates that the moves, both Up and Down, are significant -- not just in Price movement, but also with regard to Time. I, on the other hand, would have a difficult time checking only once a month after the purchase. I would be inclined to check every day until it either got to the Target of 20% or started to fall again (then I could go back to the once-a-month routine). The less time the money is in the market, the less overall risk.

I believe the reason he does not put the full $20,000 in at one time is to have additional funds in case the stock does fall further. He has stated the if that were the case, he would continue to AIM (I assume the "Virtual" AIM) the stock until it finally turned around and reached the point of the 20% gain, then he would sell everything.

Your comment, "The fact that a Buying opportunity at the Dip Price was missed is a different issue, and can be dealt with by using other methods.", is entirely correct, but, again, of no consequence if my assumption about the "Comfort Zone" and "MACRO" approach is accurate, because he is only looking for that "20% Gain" and doesn't care if it is the "FIRST" 20% or some 20% segment from the middle of the move. It is the same reason he is not trying to get "out" at the exact "TOP" either. He believes that choosing only the best quality stocks he can find at that low area of their price range, over a significant time span, gives him his best opportunity to make that 20% in a "repeatable" way.

Anyway, that's how I interpret his method.

Bob