You are correct, I am focusing on events and data and information as trade triggers.
I am an engineer/scientist.
I don't put much faith in feelings and sentiment.
I want data and events.
If the indicators that you speak of are real, and visible not just in hindsight but in foresight and in real time, then you should be able to describe them in real terms of cause and effect.
We should be able to say things like "the volume rose 3 days before the event" or "Buys outnumbered sells by more than 50% for two days before the event". or some similar real fact or indicator.
I am not a chartist, but if I were it would not have helped me predict the events of aug/sept 2010.
KBLB's average volume over the weeks and months previous was generally about 200K with a few jumps above 500K.
The volume did not exceed 1 million until the 27th of August.
There were then two days of buying volume between 1 and 2 million followed by one day of selling volume of 3 million.
After the first success announcement on 9/7.
From 9/8 to 9/10 the volume was again well below 1 million.
Then on 9/13 (the day Before the clarification) the (buying) volume was 23 million followed by two days near 15 million and then 33 million buying on 9/16 and 18 million selling on 9/17.
I was watching KBLB during this time.
I must not have been an alert enough trader, because I saw no subtle technical signs giving any indications of a change in investor sentiment or when KBLB might rise.
I was alerted on 9/5 or6 by the very Unsubtle fact that KBLB's PPS had risen by 300%. I tuned in just in time to see the first success announcement on 9/7 and bought all that I could instantly (a pittance)but I was unprepared for this dramatic event and it took me until 9/14 to get more cash into the right account so most of my buy in was around 6 cents.
The patterns of buys and sells similar to this have repeated several times since then without a similar news break.
What patterns and indicators do you see that the rest of us are missing?
Mike L.
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