Replies to post #45833 on Kraig Biocraft Laboratories Inc (KBLB)

[first mike]

Stating that my data was False is incorrect. It was data.
Somewhat approximated and therefore subject to rounding errors but basically factual unimpeachable data.
My very minor interpretations, those of cause and effect, are also relatively unimpeachable.

But you are correct that I did not present all of the possible influences on the stock price.
The promotional campaign, seemingly financed by CSC, the primary underwriter, likely did have some effect of increasing the PPS "overshoot", but such "stupid momentum trader overshoot" is virtually universal whenever any stock experiences a large gain in PPS.
This effect is more pronounced in low priced and speculative stocks than it is in slow moving expensive stocks because there are many more stock market "players" or "traders" who are looking for fast easy money and are attracted by the low entry price and high percentage gains available in such stocks.
Such promotional campaigns are common for many new or not widely known stocks.
People comment adversely about such promotions only when they go very wrong, such as in the recent IPO of facebook,
or whenever they are for low priced stocks.

I think it is a bit unfair to call CSC's promotion a "pump and dump" as such epithets are usually reserved for promotions of worthless stocks where the rise in PPS is effected ONLY by the paid publicity.

As you point out, that was not the case in Sept. 2010 for KBLB.
The long term rise in PPS was due to the release of real news of a real success. The promotional advertising helped to increase the size of the overshoot, but it was not the primary cause of the gain.

The fact that the PPS peaked and began to fall before the press conference is not surprising or unusual.

The PR of Sept. 24th had effectively "stolen the thunder" of the press conference by announcing that the press conference would be used to talk about the "research breakthrough" and telling the world that the press conference was to be held on the campus of UND, thus assuring that UND was lending its weight of credibility to the announcement.
The rapid rise to the spike in PPS followed that 9/24 PR.
By 9/29 that rise was slowing and the smarter and faster acting of the short term traders (including CSC) were already selling off at what they perceived as the top.
Had the press conference revealed something else very positive and UNEXPECTED then the PPS would have experienced a second rise based on that,
but everyone who had done any DD and knew what they were investing in knew that was very unlikely.

Sadly, the mob-like momentum investors will always be with us, and all but the few fastest of them will lose money on what ever stock they mob, but this can hardly be blamed on CSC, and certainly not on KBLB.

The problem is that if KBLB is sole driving force behind the PPS, then you will see much less volatility.

Much less volatility in terms of percentage of overshoot, but not any slower movement than 2010, perhaps faster.

Swalert pumps(main pumper=same audience) had become much less effective anyways. The november zfn success PR + swalert pump did NADA FOR THE pps.

I agree.

If KBLB releases a commercialization PR, and concurrently 20 stock promos go out...... it WILL surge too high and WILL retrace.

I agree, but even without promotion, overshoot and retrace are very common.
Promotions just increase their amplitude.

That doesnt mean money can't be made, or long positions maintained,

Agreed.

Mike L.

[es1]

Proof please.

countless paid stock promotions

.
Could you please either post links in an amount to make them "countless" or at least tell me exactly how many it takes to be 1 short of "countless"

I think in this case "Countless" = 1 The SWA pump for KBLB. Correct me if I am wrong but the news pumps like that are paid XXX shares/dollars for a XXX day pump. So they may have put out "countless" messages but it only was 1 pump
Also as far as I know SWA was the only company pumping it for pay. I am sure you could prove otherwise? I am not saying a million news letters didn't jump on the band wagon but only 1 that I know of was paid.

Should add that it was not paid for by the company either.