To me the whole buyback matter has little significance compared to the fundamentals of KMAG, even though a large buyback by a key insider clearly indicates confidence in the future prospects of an enterprise.
But if indeed we start to move after Q2 because JR will have finished his buyback, and if he has been indeed buying at the bid all these weeks (4-6 weeks+) then it is reasonable to believe that he is buying a substantial number of shares.
If we take the last 30 trading days (1.5 months) and assume that he bought an average of 2 million shares per trading day (say, 25% of average daily volume - conservatively), then that would mean he bought ~60 million shares so far.
If he continues buying at this pace to the end of Q2 (end of July), then he will have bought ~100 million shares back. This is enough to impress even the skeptics.
Of course, all this is predicated on the "theory" that it is JR holding down the price of KMAG while he accumulates.
Only speculation - but what else can we do at this point except patiently wait and speculate on the unknown?
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