InvestorsHub Logo
icon url

ls7550

07/07/12 10:02 PM

#35606 RE: Conrad #35605

Hi Conrad

Don't forget that what some call the Residual Flaw is actually a Residual Feature. Where you buy some stock and then immediately AIM would indicate to buy some more, but they aren't bought for another month (quarter) [assuming the price stayed much the same], is an additional feature to help avoid exhausting cash reserves too quickly.

In the latest version of RL's book that I have, he suggested that for an index AIM, such as S&P500, quarterly reviews were appropriate. He also maintained that 10% of stock value minimum trade size was appropriate and that 5% traded too frequently.

For 50-50 initial stock/cash ($10,000 stock value, $10,000 cash), 10% SAFE, 10% min trade size and assuming a stock was 100 and declined 20% each week for four weeks down to 40.96, a weekly updated AIM would have exhausted all cash reserves ($10,578 of total buys). The same settings, but reviewed at the 40.96 price as the first update would indicate $5500 of additional stock be bought and still leave $4500 in cash reserves should the price continue further down. (There would be a residual buy of around $2200 sitting there waiting to be traded even if the price moved nowhere).

If you're monitoring frequently in contemplation of putting on a manual brakes or acceleration, then you're making predictions that could turn out to be either right or wrong. That's also potentially emotionally driven and AIM is intended to eliminate emotional based decisions.
icon url

Adam

07/08/12 3:42 PM

#35620 RE: Conrad #35605

Hi Conrad, It's a good distinction to be made between reviewing and trading frequency.

It's not a bad idea to review the portfolio once every two weeks or so even if you don't trade, as it keeps your awareness fresh so you don't lose track of details and plans.

But let's say a stock starts to decline. If you buy weekly you end up with several small trades on the decline. The less frequent trader would make one large buy but at a lower price and would do better. Also, when I notice the stock as declined a lot and AIM is telling me to make a very large buy, I don't. I dampen the buy, and that tends to also control the cash burn.

On the sell side you can also trade too frequently and sell too early though it's not as critical as when buying.

Adam