Fundamental Analysis: ---------------------------------
Current EBITDA run rate is around 12+ million dollars.
10 times EBITDA is normal.
For a growth stock like EGT, I would give 15-20 times EBITDA.
So based on current EBITDA.. we get a market cap of 120 - 240 million dollars easily.
New projects online in 2012 ------------------------------------------- Sokha Luxury Resort 250 EGMs added on April 2012.
Dreamland Pailin Casino opened on May 9th 2012.
Dreamland Poippet and Dreamland Kampot opening in 2012.
Phillipines WUD breaking out due to targeted marketing efforts.
Debt free by December 2012. --------------------------------------------- Based on my research, EBITDA will atleast double to 20+ million dollars on the low end and 25-30 million dollars on the high end.
So the market is in the process of putting the right price for EGT.
At 5$, EGT gets a market cap of 151 million dollars.
So that's not pricing the future growth.
As EBITDA goes from current 12 to say 15 .. or 18 or 20 or 25 million dollars.
So for numbers sake.. lets assume EBITDA incrases another 30%.
30% increase in EBITDA to 5$ gives you 6.50 target.
40% increase in EBITDA to 5$ gives you 7.00 target.
50% increase in EBITDA to 5$ gives you 7.50 target.
I am expecting EGT to reach 25-30 million dollars EBITDA in 2012-2013.
Keep in mind.. this is a process and takes time.
Market will eventually reward EGT investors.
So my 7-8$ target will be appropriate.. even if EGT can achieve an EBITDA of 16-18 million dollars.
So what ever targets i am throwing on this board is very conservative.
EGT will easily beat these numbers in next 6-18 months.
Market is in the process of re pricing EGT.
Patience will pay off handsomely to EGT investors in this worst market conditions.
But i will bump up my targets to 12-14$ soon once we get closer to 6-8$.
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