Replies to post #12774 on Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Seasound]

I don't know. With so many improved numbers the earnings are still going to show misses

While many numbers improved we still remain unprofitable, with a larger backlog, and a 10% increase in plant utilization. What will it take to make a profit?

One thing that I'm not clear on is how DJ seemed quite pleased to be heading into the new fiscal year with $50 million cash reserves. Since the last equity offering netted over $100 million cash where the heck did that other 50 million go in such a short time and why is DJ so optimistic that they won't have to go to the trough again sooner or later. This horse has been trotted out before, as a matter of fact I believe it was less than a year ago that I heard the same mantra. That dog won't hunt next time.

Also, DJ didn't seem to think that the recent weakness in natgas prices would affect demand as the drillers were going after gas liquids and oil. We'll see.

None of the analyst asked about the Japan market and nothing was offered. Australia and Russia were mentioned as two of the major overseas markets and I can confirm that Australia is signing long term sales agreements, of LNG, at a rapid pace. Drilling down under seems to be unaffected by the low prices in the US markets and buyers are willing to pay for the product and delivery charges. There is unprecedented demand for natgas which should bode well for Capstone, at least as far as selling product at a loss goes.

I heard a lot of blab, color, looking under the table, waste, overtime, component cost, etc. but really nothing significant as far as turning a profit goes. I could go back and listen but I think I did hear an overture about 2013 being the year when we will see results that will affect the share price in a positive manner. That tune is what we are all fundamentally interested in but with little forward guidance we will still be at the mercy of the shorter's.

Of course I could be completely wrong, but get the feeling that that we will continue in a narrow sideways movement barring announcements of numerous orders of the more profitable C1000s. We were all hoping for some new announcements of large orders since the recent dry spell hit, but I didn't hear anything concrete this afternoon.

All of those improved numbers still didn't turn us a dime and I think it is time that DJs package start reflecting that. How about for each quarter you miss the earnings estimates you take a quarter hit in your package DJ? Heck, at least that would lower overhead costs.

I hope the Capt'n can explain where that 50 million of the not so recent dilution was burned. At that rate the 4.5 million in positive cash flow per quarter isn't going to bake the cake. I for one am challenged when trying to work the numbers taking into account warrants, recent rulings, etc.

One more thing to get off my chest... where do these "rock & roll, about time, very nice," comments come from? Just from AF fools who didn't read the full 10k? I sure hope that "they" drive it back up during normal trading hours and keep that pps slope parallel to the 5 year CAGR and keep the gross margin above zero from this point hereafter.

Tomorrow will tell the tale won't it?

[lloyd20]

with all many numbers to consume, it is amazing how it comes down to one number--EARNINGS... And we fail again. Hope spring eternal but you can only put lipstick on a pig so long.