Replies to post #143328 on Biotech Values

[rkrw]

With that in mind, what to make of Hepatitis C?

How many expensive drugs can add tiny increments to efficacy and still be used/paid for?

This is about a year out of date. 141 projects. Eyeballing it quite a few have fallen off but I wouldn't doubt they've been replaced and then some by new projects.

http://hcvdrugs.com/

And the Jefferies update on Medivir for anyone interested.

Medivir (MVIRB SS, Buy)
Peter Welford [phone]



Who Presented: Rein Piir, CFO



Key Takeaways:



Reiterated clinical timelines: Focus on TMC435 Phase III hepatitis C headline data in 4Q12E, for global filings 1H13E. TMC435+GS7977 initial data should also be available by YE, which we believe is likely AASLD in November. In the nucleotide NS5B pipeline a new compound with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, $62.34, Hold) should commence Phase I by YE, with an internal lead candidate also being selected. MIV-711 (cathepsin K inhibitor) Phase I biomarker data in 1Q13E and a candidate cathepsin S inhibitor selected by YE, with both programmes likely to be partnered.



Impressive efficacy in anti-cirrhotics: Detailed Phase II TMC435 data continue to demonstrate both impressive tolerability and broad anti-viral activity, notably in hard-to-treat cirrhotic patients. This group of patients could be important for TMC435 if competing products’ efficacy is weaker in this subgroup. Overall TMC435’s safety and efficacy should position it as a key protease inhibitor (PI) in future HCV combination regiments for the treatment of HCV. However, in our view the rapidly evolving HCV market leaves us slightly concerned about TMC435’s position, with partner JNJ lagging behind in the combo