More comments:
RPS Energy did not make any estimates for a Gondwana system play (i.e. at shallower depth above the Permian unconformity) for Bellevue and Thunderbolt. However, GES somewhat surprisingly arrives at prospect chances of 24% for Bellevue and 22% for Thunderbolt for that play.
The GES table shows Gondwana Trap risk factors of 70% for both Bellevue and Thunderbolt. Why such a high percentage should be awarded is unclear in view of the seismic profiles not being interpretable as showing presence of identifiable structural traps. That is not to say they might not be present but it is a long shot that the wells would be luckily located right over them. There is also no drape evident in the seismic profiles of the Permo-Triassic sequence over the basement domes so that a dipping seqence representing a broad structural trap would have to be ruled out. That leaves permeable beds with low primary dips experiencing fault truncations against impermeable units or lateral facies changes into impermeable units representing wholly sedimentary trap structures of indeterminate but low chance. Laterally persistent oil/gas accumulations immediately below the dolerite contact acting as a seal is an exotic notion that barely stands serious consideration.
In view of these reservations in assigning a low 70% risk factor to presence of traps, if the percentage were halved to 35% for Bellevue the prospect chance success reduces from 24% to 12% and if it were assigned a conservative say 20% the prospect chance of success would be 7% (with still no overall Gondwana system play factor employed).
All in all I take the GES prospect chance percentages with quite a large dose of salt.
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