Tending to agree with you....at least enough to go short for small position....
...it's looking like the action of last several days might be a fourth wave of the recent move down meaning we get a fifth wave down to mid 1200's before we get the next wave up....
Re entered with some UPRO 68 puts to give it a go.
The pattern I was watching last week was triangle looking; however, I was not calling it an e-wave triangle. With this morning's rally, I have a pretty clear wave count from last Monday's lows.
Wave 2 corrective double zigzag. wave a: Double zigzag from last Monday into Tuesday morning high. wave b: Triangle from Tuesday high into Friday low. wave c: in progress.