MF4: It would take an enormous boost from Bernanke to juice the markets with sufficient Benji Bucks to cause a rally that would sustain through the election. Probably on the order of $1.5 Trillion. I don't know if that is politically feasible 188 days before election day.
I agree with you on Romney and Obama. A re-elect would be a complete and utter disaster. Obamacare has to be repealed on the day after the inauguration. Government has to be downsized or it will eat us all alive. But Obama has been cooperating by alienating various constituencies that voted for him the last time. He's really pissed off the Catholics who are suing the Feds. He pissed off a lot of the Jewish vote by his treatment of Netanyahu. He's alienting some younger voters with the dismal job creation and high unemployment in the 18-26 year old cohort. Some Wall Street money that backed him last time, like Steve Schwarzman of Blackrock, have moved to the Romney camp. Obama's fundraising outside of Hollyweird is disappointing. And he's up against a campaign that isn't afraid to counter-punch, unlike McCain.
As I see it the market rallies here to new nominal intermediate highs in the Dow and S&P, then reverses and goes into bear mode from July to October. Under that scenario the poll numbers should look pretty good for Romney and that would cause a "hopeful" counter-rally lasting until Inauguaration Day. Then the market will really go into a long term nosedive droppin to S&P 500-600 sometime in 2014. Almost a repeat of the Reagan takeover after the hapless Jimmy Carter. Lots of parallels to those days. I have often referred to Obama as a "cafe-au-lait" Jimmy Carter. But in reality he's worse. And I didn't think that was possible. But unless Romney does something stupid I think it's his election to lose, provided he picks a good VP that would help him with the Tea Party wing. Someone like Rand Paul or Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan. It's going to be interesting to watch.
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