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Street Smarts

05/21/12 3:47 PM

#184044 RE: the big guy #184042

They bought at $0.80...do you buy at your valuation or when a company is at a discount from where you think it should be valued?
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Scandle34

05/21/12 8:39 PM

#184083 RE: the big guy #184042

taking into account risk AND desperation AND discounting from trailing lowest bid over a reasonable period (like serious investors will), they were willing to commit $0.80 for the lockup period (assuming there is one, as there typically is).

That does not mean the trailing bid was either sufficiently high or sufficiently low to reflect a proper valuation.

Frankly there is just too much disparity between the value of a JB-run pinkie with a dream and the discounted future value (DFV) of a properly executed company with moderate chance of survival. All we know is the desparate pinkie is valued at much less than $0.80 and the successful outcome has a DFV is more than a multiple of that.

However, any VC I ever talked to expected 10X in 5 years, so at least a $8 target. They also expected to succeed at 20% of them, lose 60-70% outright, and painfully tend to the remaining "walking wounded". That all said, I'd hate to be here another 5 years... jeesh.