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flybucks

05/20/12 5:29 PM

#4638 RE: SciGuy #4636

days on REGSHO correlate to price pop?

anyone familiar with tendencies between the two because if so we might have short-term pop based on the little i've studied

ALXA AEZS PLX SOMX POZN AMRN ITMN TLON DSCO all volatile bios from which you can make some $$ if you don't lose it all first!

sts66

05/20/12 7:58 PM

#4642 RE: SciGuy #4636

One word of advice since you say you're new to stocks, let alone the pitfalls of biotechs, the hardest sector on earth to be successful in, let alone break even - pay ZERO attention to Adumb Fraudstein, except maybe using him as a contrarian indicator - his track record is MISERABLE. He has no educational background in science and is part of the "captured" media who spread FUD to satisfy the financial needs/desires on the behalf of unknown behind-the-scenes big money players.

Your experiences and warnings about what to do around PDUFA's and other important binary events is advice well worth paying attention to, in that generally, you can make more money, albeit less on each stock, by trading around binary events as opposed to the buy and hold approach, despite what your DD may tell you to do. Management can always screw the pooch on drug rollouts (AVNR/Nuedexta), or the drugs just don't sell as well as expected (POZN/Vivimo). That's the hit and run approach of taking lots of singles instead of betting on one or two home runs, nothing wrong with that.

I believe Arena is a different animal though - the potential here is so enormous it truly boggles the mind - and thanks to various knowledgeable posters on the YMB, here, and on the IV board (Dr. Dan, Dr. Vig, jdstevens, etc.), if you have some scientific training and can understand the terminology/statistics/biology, you will be totally comfortable with ARNA's future. There's nothing wrong with taking a profit when you have it of course, it's safer than hoping everything goes according to plan - if you believe in the company's prospects patience is a required personality trait. The "get rich quick" attitude will almost always get you run over by a truck in this sector (see DNDN for the most recent #1 example of "pigs get slaughtered").

I was strongly in the "I'm at least taking my cost out if we have a great Adcom" camp, but after reviewing the BD's, listening to the Adcom, reading the instant blogs from those who were attending, and getting a feel for how positively the FDA now views Lorc, I've overhauled my plans - I'm keeping every damn share for now. Will likely take some off the table at some point in the near future (not much) if I find a new target (IMUC is tempting), but Arena has proven (to me) that their "custom engineered molecule" system is robust and accurate, with limitless applications for future drug designs. That's a huge game changer, and something OREX and VVUS will never, ever have - the ability to pick specific brain receptors and create an agonist that targets them will change how new drugs are created, at least for diseases/health problems that depend on chemical activity in the brain.