If you want to trade this, that offering was a gift and you should buy on Monday - I fully expect the pps to slowly rise as 5/27 approaches, then a double upon news of approval - pps of $12-$15 - but it won't stay there, traders and some long term holders will take well deserved profits, new shorts will jump in, but after the traders exit and the 'tutes start buying in force the pps will stabilize and resume it's climb upward.
Speaking of the shorts, expect to see a monster drop when the new numbers come out - I've been tracking the daily stats (covering vs. new shorts), and the net change from 4/10 is almost -60M shrs, more than the total number reported on 4/30 (44M), which tells me a lot of phantom shrs have been created by the crooked MM's (plus we've been on the REGSHO threshold list for over a week).
Once Lorc is in the hands of obesity docs and weight loss clinics, they'll start writing combo scrips of Lorc - Phen, the weight loss stats will blow by Qnexa's without Q's nasty side effects and limited target population, and a year or two from now the pps could be approaching $40 - $50, if we don't get bought out before then. I expect all the big pharmas will be clustered at Arena's front door fighting over the company - besides Lorc for weight loss, they're interested in using it for smoking cessation, another gigantic market.
Arena has plenty in the pipeline and strong IP/patents - if you read the recent prospectus you'll find this (another reason why they needed money sooner rather than later - new drug trials):
"Our prioritized earlier-stage programs include APD811, an internally discovered, orally available agonist of the prostacyclin receptor intended for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. APD811 completed a single-dose, Phase 1 clinical trial in 2011, and we plan to initiate a multiple dose, dose titration, Phase 1 clinical trial of APD811 this year. We also plan to file in 2012 an Investigational New Drug, or IND, application with the FDA for APD334 (an internally discovered, orally available agonist of the S1P1 receptor intended for the treatment of a number of conditions related to autoimmune diseases, including multiple sclerosis) and to continue development of our programs on APD371 (an internally discovered, orally available agonist of the cannabinoid receptor 2 intended for the treatment of pain) and GPR119 agonists (intended for the treatment of type 2 diabetes)."
Long story short - ARNA stock below $6 is a steal! I bought the final lot in my cash account on Friday, done buying in my IRA too - have an avg basis around $3 (more than twice as many shrs in the IRA as the cash account)- if ARNA hits $50 or more I am set for life, retirement-wise :-) Hope they manage to stay independent....could go way past $50 in 5 yrs as new products come out. And no, I'm not dreaming, this could be our reality folks.
P.S. Something that never seems to get discussed here is part of the deal Arena has with Eisai - $1.16 BILLION in purchase price adjustment payments based on Eisai's annual net sales - and that's on top of the 31.5% - 36.5% they get from sales.
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