You realize that you are asking the opinion of someone who pounded the table that it would be $18 yesterday, right?
If T/A for biotech is accurate, shouldn't Ariad be trading at $20 today?
FWIW, the only reliable T/A indicator I have used for Ariad is pullbacks to the 50 day as a buy point. That has served me well over the last 3 years. The other thing that has served me well is walking away from the screen on days like yesterday.