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downsideup

05/17/12 1:19 PM

#2018 RE: sterlingkuning #2016

They've clearly lost the "pause" near the $1 barrier... leaving almost nothing for investors to base a rational guess at "fair market" pricing on now, other than the market "noise" (or the stunning lack of it)... and the trends.

More downside could come quickly here... even with no news... while any hint of bad news will accelerate it more given the leverage issues have them already underwater, and even good news now will require some larger "proofs" in an improved outlook for holders, and will still leave them struggling, at best, to regain lost ground. Looks like time passing means they're moving past posturing "dilution risks" into existential risks...

There might be another tradeable bounce that occurs over a few days here somewhere, after another sharp acceleration lower... but, I think it will require genuinely changed "fundamentals" to support it for more than that sort of short term technical correction. I won't expect to see the sort of leisurely or patient drift we saw in the first quarter. The slope of the chart right now, though, is suggesting more of the same is what's ahead, and the chart isn't giving any compelling technical reason that I can see that would make mee want to hold any of the risk...

Without some fundamental catalyst supplying a reason... I won't expect that to change... so, the 45 degree slide to the right likely continues until there's a reason for it to change.