Replies to post #10434 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

13 more days like today (so far), and we get our $2 :)


One overlooked part of the presentation was that SIAF is looking for institutional support. I believe this is Dan Ritchey's work for the company -- the institutional IR rep like Chad is the retail side. Hopefully, Chad will correct me here, if I'm wrong.

It is not an easy sell to promote a BB company to mutual funds, etc., as many have absolute restrictions. But I have to believe that as the uplist path becomes farther traveled, this promotion becomes easier and easier.

The fundamental financial SIAF story speaks for itself, becoming increasingly credible each quarter, as each goal is met, underpinned by hard, visible assets.

[golf_crazy_79]

Pretty sure the 50% figure for a dividend or distribution has nothing to do with earnings from SIAF or its subs.

It refers to the cash SIAF receives from the IPO spin out. In the example Solomon gave, SIAF would spin out 30% of a subsidiary he guessed would be valued at $250M. That means SIAF would receive 30% of $250M in cash, or $75M.

50% of that, or $37.5M would be distributed to the shareholders, probably as part of a dividend.

Meanwhile, the parent company retains the other $37.5M in cash and 70% equity interest in the freely trading spun out company.

If there are 82M shares when this happens, the value to SIAF shareholders should be $3.05 per share, $.46 of which would be in the form of a distribution or dividend.

Exactly what I took from the recordings as well.

[viking86]

exactly. That's how I calculated the 0.65-0.70 divi for FY 2014. Assuming rev=600m in 2014 (a wild assumption at this point but that's 4x the guidance of about 150m for 2012):

600m x 0.33 = 198m NI if NM=33%
divi= 8% x 198m = 16m
or 16m/82m= .19/sh approx
add the 0.46 one-time divi from spinoff, that's about 0.65/sh total divi for FY 2014.

Anybody disagrees (besides the rough estimates)?

[slyestjester]

IMO Solomon placing a 250 mil value on the fishery business in 2014 is almost ludicrously low. It could easily be valued at twice that or even considerably more. He is being ultra-, ultra-conservative.

I would love for SIAF to issue a press release delineating the schedule and policy regarding planned spinoffs beginning in 2014 and the return of half of all received to shareholders as a dividend. That would certainly catch investor attention.