Odds of being successful for this stratigraphic hole?
Geologically and/or technically? I give it a 90% probability of being successful.
Your question really means: "What are the chances that it will make the stock go up or will it be "successful" in a share-accretive manner?"
I give it a 50-50 chance of making the stock price go up unless it kicks a major in the arse and makes them chase a JV or a direct investment in EXSFF.
Without a deep-pocketed sugar daddy, the markets might fear the financial burden associated with establishing a 3mm ounce M&I resource.
Very little technical risk but possibly hampered by the fear of financial risk (more dilution).
Whatever the outcome, it is a ballsy move by Dupont and that is what I have always admired about the entire deal.