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TRCPA

08/22/05 8:48 AM

#11186 RE: TRCPA #11185

P.S. After reading that article, imagine what would happen if substantial alternative sources were harvested to offset oil consumption?

What would just a 10% worldwide reduction in oil consumption, via use of new alternatives, do to the supply/demand equation for oil?

Or 20% reduction? Or maybe a 30% reduction?

Seems to me the answer is pretty clear.

It would reduce the cost of oil in an ever-increasing manner, as alternatives take up a larger percentage of the total needs, and supply of oil easily exceeds demand again.

I'm guessing you might then start to see a balancing effect, in which the cost of the alternatives will pattern the cost of oil.

That is, unless the cost of the alternatives continues to drop to a point where oil becomes nearly obsolete. What if there is a renewable substitute for oil developed that is consistently cheaper? What then happens to oil, a non-renewable source?

Probably unlikely in our lifetimes.

But, it is easy to see why OPEC and some of the big oil companies might be getting a little nervous.