Replies to post #6929 on General Stock Ideas

[bigworld]

NYSE Margin Debt At Highest Since July Means Threat Of Margin Calls High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/04/2012 10:39 -0400

As so often happens, every time there is a ramp in the stock market, especially one which is not accompanied by retail buying, those who are buying, are forced to do so on increasingly more margin, as there is only so much cash in the market without booking actual profits. Sure enough, as of the end of February, margin debt was $289 billion, the highest since July 2011, while Net Free Credit (Free Credit Cash plus Credit balances in margin accounts less Margin Debt) of negative $33 billion (meaning investors have negative net worth) was the lowest also since July. What does this mean? Simply said, that if the cross asset rout continues, which means bonds yesterday, and stocks and commodities today, the margin calls will once again resume, as they used to in the fall of 2011, leading to a toxic liquidation spiral, pushing prices even lower.........

[bigworld]

gfp: If it turns out that we do enter correction mode it will be from the exact area I originally thought it would occur.....1400-1440. I jumped in a little too early when the market could not seem to overtake 1375 after dozens of attempts. But as of current prices all my HDGE shares (my largest short play) are in positive territory. But I can't trust any downturn until it occurs. It's all dependent on what the cabal does or doesn't do. There was no fundamental justification for the ramp up in the first place, but it occurred despite the continued absence of significant retail buying of equities. Then when Bernanke announced no new free money boondoggles (yet) the market is pouting. Funny how parties seem to fade when the punch bowl gets taken away. No trading on Friday, which means next Monday should be very interesting. Depending on news, rumors or manipulation (probably all three) we could open on Monday anywhere from down 250 to up 250 (on the Dow). And as you said things in Europe are deteriorating rapidly. The lack of meaningful employment, especially among the young in Europe is a powder keg waiting for a match. Young unemployment (18-26) tops 50% in Spain and Greece. This could turn out to be an awful summer of discontent in Europe.

[Market_Fest4]

On Monday,
After waking up to the ten thousandth engineered Monday pre-market selloff and instant rally in a row, I covered my SPY short for the last time and liquidated most of my positions. I also sold most of my SDS, which I had ridden down from $23 to under $15.

I have a knack for selling bottoms and buying tops. True to form, it looks like the long overdue selloff may be occurring now, instead of May, which I was figuring. What else is new?

Had enough of the BS. Mostly in cash and SLV and GLD calls, which of course are getting whacked today. Should have sold those too. Won't take the pain, if you don't play the game. Have fun with this joke game,
MF4