Barchart.com Morning Call for Thursday, March 29, 2012
Overnight Developments
• Global stocks this morning are lower with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.83% and Jun S&Ps down -5.00 points. The dollar and Treasuries rose while stocks and commodities declined after the head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's said Greece will probably have to restructure its debt again and this may involve bailout partners such as European governments. The IMF mission chief to Greece added that while the country has made an "aggressive" fiscal adjustment, it will take at least a decade to fully complete the country's restructuring. Another negative for European stocks and the euro was the unexpected -0.1 point decline in Mar Euro-Zone economic confidence to 94.4, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 94.5. On the positive side, Mar German unemployment fell -18,000, more than expectations of -10,000, while the Mar unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 6.7%, better than expectations of unchanged at 6.8% and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991. Crude oil prices declined after French Premier Fillon told France Inter Radio that the prospects of an accord between the U.S. and Europe on tapping strategic oil reserves are "good."
• Asian stocks today closed lower with Japan down -0.67%, China -1.28%, Australia -0.13%, South Korea -0.93%, India -0.37%. Asian stocks closed lower on concerns China's economic slowdown is weighing on company earnings and after U.S. durable goods orders rose less than expected. The yen rose against the dollar, which weakened Japanese exporters, on speculation Japanese companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on Mar 31. A bullish factor for Japanese stocks was the +2.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y increase in Feb Japan retail sales, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.4% y/y, with the +3.5% y/y increase the biggest gain in 1-1/2 years. China's Shanghai Stock Index slipped to a 2-1/4 month low on concern the slowing economy is undercutting company earnings. Data from Bloomberg show 505 companies in the Shanghai Composite have released annual earnings with an average profit growth of 17%, compared with 38% growth in the previous year.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
• June S&Ps this morning are trading down -5.00 points. The U.S. stock market Wednesday retreated after durable goods orders rose less than forecast and after a slide in crude oil drove energy producers lower: Dow Jones -0.54%, S&P 500 -0.49%, Nasdaq Composite -0.49%. The Nasdaq rallied up to an 11-year high early, but gave up its advance and closed lower. Bearish factors Wednesday included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. durable goods orders (+2.2% and +1.6% ex transportation, weaker than expectations of +3.0% and +1.7% ex transportation), (2) weakness in energy producers after a surge in weekly DOE crude inventories sent oil prices tumbling, and (3) global growth concerns after Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower.
• Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) reduced European sovereign debt concerns after Italy auctioned 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years and after Italian Prime Minister Monti said that the Euro-Zone's debt woes are "almost over," and (2) a rally in oil-tanker companies after Dahlman Rose & Co. said the industry's asset prices may gain as much as 20% within a year as sanctions targeting Iran's crude exports alters trading patterns and reduces a glut in global oil tanker fleets.
• Mosaic (MOS) fell 2.2% in European trading after the company reported Q3 EPS of 64 cents a share, weaker than analysts' estimates of 69 cents, citing lower potash volumes and higher phosphate raw-material costs.
Today's Market Focus
• June 10-year T-notes this morning are up +5 ticks. T-note prices Wednesday moved higher into early afternoon after the Fed bought long-term Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program and Feb durable goods orders rose less than expected but prices faded into the close and settled little changed on lackluster demand for the Treasury's $35 billion 5-year T-note auction: TYM2 -0.5, FVM2 -1.0, EDU2 -0.5. Bullish factors Wednesday included (1) the smaller-than-expected increase in Feb U.S. durable goods orders (+2.2% and +1.6% ex transportation, weaker than expectations of +3.0% and +1.7% ex transportation), and (2) the Fed's purchase of $4.81 billion of Treasuries as part of its Operation Twist program to replace $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries in an attempt to keep borrowing costs low. Bearish factors included (1) reduced safe-haven demand for Treasuries as European sovereign-debt concerns eased after Italy auctioned 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years, (2) slack demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.85, weaker than the 12-auction average of 2.89, and (3) supply pressures ahead of the Treasury's $29 billion auction of 7-year T-notes on Thu.
• The dollar index this morning is higher with the dollar/yen -0.66 yen and the euro/dollar -0.42 cents. The dollar index Wednesday strengthened after the euro and British pound declined when Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower along with increased safe-haven demand for the greenback after stocks moved lower: Dollar Index +0.079, USD/JPY -0.279, EUR/USD +0.00020. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in the British pound and the euro after Q4 U.K. and French GDP were revised lower, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after stocks declined. Bearish factors included (1) euro positive comments from Italian Prime Minister Monti who said that the Euro-Zone's debt woes are "almost over" after a slow initial response by policy makers, (2) Italy's auction of 8.5 billion euros of T-bills at 1.119%, the lowest yield in 1-1/2 years, which reduces the safe-haven demand for the dollar as European debt concerns ease, and (3) a draft statement for Euro-Z one finance ministers that said European governments are preparing for a 1-year increase in the ceiling on rescue funds to 940 billion euros to combat the European debt crisis, which is euro supportive.
• May crude oil prices this morning are down -64 cents a barrel and May gasoline is +0.10 of a cent per gallon. Crude oil and gasoline prices Wednesday tumbled as the dollar rose and after weekly DOE crude oil inventories climbed by the most since July 2010: CLK12 -$1.92, RBK -2.43. Bearish factors included (1) the stronger dollar, which diminishes investment demand in commodities, (2) the surge in weekly DOE crude stockpiles by the most in 20-months to a 7-month high (+7.10 million bbl to 353.4 million bbl versus expectations of +2.7 million bbl), (3) a possible release of SPR supplies in an attempt to curb rising oil prices after French Budget Minister Pecresse said "France is accompanying the U.S. and U.K. in an IEA consultation that could allow the release of strategic oil reserves in order to break the rising price spiral," and (4) the downward revisions to Q4 U.K. and French GDP, which indicates reduced energy consumption. Bullish factors included (1) th e larger-than-expected decline in weekly DOE gasoline supplies (-3.54 million bbl versus expectations of -1.55 million bbl) and (2) increased crude consumption in Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, after data showed Japan's utilities use of crude oil for generating power rose +118% in 2011 to 8.8 million kiloliters, or a 4-year high of 400,000 barrels a day, as it runs out of capacity to use liquefied natural gas as a stopgap for idled nuclear-power plants.
Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings reports (confirmed releases, sorted by mkt cap): BBY-Best Buy (BEST earnings consensus $2.15), TIBX-TIBCO Software (0.19), FCE-Forest City Enterprises (0.32), SHAW-Shaw Group (0.45), JOSB-JOS A Bank Clothiers (1.58), WOR-Worthington Industries (0.35), NAT-Nordic American Tankers Ltd. (-0.33), CASC-Cascade (1.09), MOV-Movado Group (0.10), XRTX-Xyratex Ltd. (0.26), MAPP-MAP Pharmaceuticals (-0.31).
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