Replies to post #17568 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[JJM760]

What does Pharmasset’s valuation have to do with ARIA? Nothing, IMO.

Agreed. 11 billion MC for Ariad at this point is a fantasy and not going to happen. I have read that some analysts expect the total HCV market to be north of 9 billion/year. At this point, the combined market for Ponatinib and 113 (if it works) would be nothing close to 9 billion. Perhaps if all the stars align someday down the road there is a remote chance that all of Ariad's pipeline adds up to something close to that.

That being said, If Ponatinib is approved and 113 starts to show some serious potential, the possibility of a 7-8 billion MC buyout ($45-$50/share) would not be out of the question, IMO. We should have a clearer picture of the market for Ponatinib and the efficacy/safety of 113 in about 1-2 years from today. I have waited this long, what's a few more years.

[mejs]

It was bought without an approved drug.BP like NVS will pay big time to get a pipeline and Protect their loss from Gleevec.