You just reminded me of me, years ago. You can.t have any idea how many of those super detailed "what do I see" evaluations I've done, while trying to understand the OTC's actions.
I present the black box here. Put this in and get this out. And always hated being taught that way. Always needed to know what goes on inside. Your looking for what goes on inside. It took hundreds for me to make it basic, simple and clean. From time to time I'll get into the details of M&M manipulation and bid/ask flow during the day. But I'm sorry I just don't have the time to get into all the detail needed to answer all your questions itn that excellent post. Excellent, because you are asking all the right questions. You know what should happen, but what really is.
The answers are not black and white. There are many variables and for each, a differnt answer. The only thing I can say to help you is: do you really need to know all the variables. If so, it could take years to get the different actions for different plays all line up in order it you head. So you can know what is happening in most cases. I spent those years. And learned nothing is for sure and basic pattern do happen in most cases.
To give you a answer to each question. in that specific stock action. I'd need to become as deeply involved as you did to understand the mindset of the darkside players at the specific time. Yes I could come up with my thought as to what is happening and why. But in the end the info would really only be opinion based on experience. Thus speculation or and educated guess.
And how would that change how one should trade. It's really only clutter. I found the results would end up the same. I may know why, but would still trade the TIPs Rules and patterns. I'd think detailed, but trade black box. Keepin my actions simple basic and clean.
For every darkside entity involved with each individual stock play the fleece the herd plan changes slightly. Some have better help form M&Ms then other plays. And some plays get taken over by day traders earlier then others and some never see day trader come at all. Other combine every one. Acting, reacting and interacting perfectly. Some step some go parabolic and some fail. Why is not as important as what the chart looks like during.
If a big guy places a flash order big at the ask and the M&Ms don't respond. One thing will happen minutes after. But if they do, another thing will happen. If a daily price runs frantic and just stops trading for 30 minutes. Is that because no one is placing new orders or because M&Ms banded together on previous open market signals to stall the run. You never really know. If you see 10 mil stack up at the bid and then get closed bing bing bing. Is that a sign big guys are wash trading to manipulate a reversal to reload lower. It depends on what you've seen and noticed before for that stock.
Get the idea, you need years of evaluating tic by tic on many many plays to form opinions on what is happening on the individual stock involved. And need to be very involved in the trading action to understand. Because each play has it's own personality, own power brokers and own rhythms.
All this to say I'm too lazy to try to get into your stock deep enough to answer your questions. LOL sorry. What your doing is good, but not needed. I know because I did it myself and came out learning; in one end and out the other, is good enough to create TIPs, Rules and Patterns to trade. The black box is good enough.
Knowing what to expect after a 30 minute trade stall or quick bid build and quick bid build close. Became over kill, while day trading and pretty much useless swing trading. It's cool I can explain what to expect. But trading a day trade charts timing is just as successful and less complicated. I wouldn't say I waste my time evaluating all those stock plays. Looking in the box is part of human nature and the reason we continue to progress. But all I personally gained form all the work was satisfaction. Not an increase in successful trading. The box was good enough for success.
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