Agree with this Mojo and also agree with Thurly assessment. I would add the following:
First of all, down is down and anything that makes the stock go down is not good for investors and makes us wrong (even if only temporarily) in my assessment. No use ever kidding yourself.
It looks like the Bavi data was roughly consistant and on one measure of PFS actually a bit higher. Overall data measurement now on "several tracks" and in some cases the SOC meaurement is much higher narrowing the margin of improvement by Bavi. This is an unexpected change in the "measurement" of SOC???
It does however, look like the Bavi ORR was at least 7 pts lower than the preliminary release which means Mgmt was wrong to that extent. (or there was some subjective measurement change)
Imaging measurement techniques have little to do with "MOS" so that will be the determining factor. Does Bavi in combo upregulate the immune system and increase MOS as advertised or not??? Would like to have that data in 1st line tomorrow but, unfortunately sounds like a wait. The only good in that is the longer the wait the better it may be. According to Dr. Thorpe this upregulation should occur and I have placed a lot of faith in Dr. Thorpe.
Have not sold any shares on this decline but for the first time have ceased to average down until further data clarification. The lower price advantage is mitigated by a possible delist notification (which PPHM can string out for a year but-- nevertheless) and by potentially higher percentage dilution. Also, awaiting any further milestones on Cotara, viral, etc.. Also, awaiting 2nd line NSCLC data and any benefit to combo with doxy. This latter group of items might mitigate the situation in a more favorable direction.
The math on all previous data would indicate that Bavi in combo with Doxy should be much better than Doxy alone in 2nd line NSCLC.
Now we will have to see whether 2nd line measurements increase the ORR of doxy in the same way 1st line measurement improved SOC. My guess is that will be less the case since these patients already failed chemo. Again, the doxy vs 2nd line NSCLC study that led to SOC showed ORR 5.5%, PFS 2.5 months and MOS 7.5 months. Since Bavi MOA different than chemo IMO still expect signifigantly better results than above something like ORR 10-15%, PFS 3.4 months, and MOS 9 months. (This would be a very statistically signifigant difference for FDA in this indication.)
I am sure the analysts will do the job of questioning SK on the conference call so I am interested in hearing that discussion as well. SK is not just a clinician. He is also the CEO of a business and as such would do well to address alternate means of financing and cash conservation. And I repeat for the umpteenth time, there are a number of possibilities other than ATM.
Bavi is an immuno upregulation/ antiangiogenesis MOA so whatever good it does is always on the back end of the time line as the immune system takes longer to work than other types of MOA.
All IMO
Best regards on a real tough day,
RRdog
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