Replies to post #46706 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

OddLot,

The wave count looks complete, so the bottom should be in. The Gold/SPX ratio should rally and break 1.65.

One word of caution about ratios: There are two components, a numerator (price of gold), and a denominator (SPX index). Either or both can change and the ratio still increase. These are the cases:

Gold can rally faster than the SPX rallies.
Gold rallies and the SPX moves sideways or falls.
Gold moves sideways or falls slower than the SPX falls.

The worst outcome for someone using the Gold/SPX ratio to justify buying gold is when gold falls slower than the SPX falls. And just because there are two cases of gold rallying does not mean the probability of gold rallying is twice that of gold selling off at a very slow rate.