Elan Tysabri :
Figure 400k MS patients in USA, plus 500k in Europe. Approx 50% are on the other drugs; which have efficacy, but clearly less so. The interferons are unpleasant, and I think all or most (including Teva's Copaxone) is the competition is injected daily, which patients hate (Tysabri being a monthly infusion). Price is $23k per patient per year, supposedly it will not change. How much market share will Tysabri win ? That's the big question.
It is sure to win approval in Crohn's too, the two phase III's are in. In all probability the current Crohn's regime of Remicade is more dangerous than Tysabri. The market potential in Crohn's is approx 50% of MS - although then Ulcerative Colitis will provide some off-label use.
Note that Elan books 50% of the sales and profits.
Finally, there are the futute competitors in these areas. Apparently it will hard for some time to match Tysabri in MS efficacy, although more convenient drug forms (oral) may be on their way.
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