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marich

03/04/12 12:26 PM

#5158 RE: fly_fisherman #5157

f_f - If I had put even a fraction of the energy into this board that you have, I would also be aggravated as hell with the behavior of company management regarding the lack of shareholder communications. However, in the big picture, our feelings may not count for much.

If the oil is there and we have experts on the board who assume it is, then, at the end of the day, the important thing is management's ability to pull it out of the ground with a plan that does not substantially marginalize the value of the shares we now hold. I never expected the A/S to stay at 200M and was only mildly surprised to see it at 600M rather than the 500M that was telegraphed last year.

So far, we have not seen dilution in the form of a gross increase of O/S and a bulk sale of same into the market. What we have seen is one or more big shareholders selling relatively cheap for reasons unknown. I'm not going to try to second guess that, except to say that maybe (positive spin here), it was someone(s) who needed money and just didn't have the time to wait for a program to come together.

If Dan's plan is to use some, most or all of the 400 million shares he's now got to play with to put JVs together, with competent partners to initiate multiple drilling projects, then I say go for it! In that scenario, we most likely won't see retail shares hitting the market until the pps is substatially higher, giving us all plenty of opportunities to sell for nice profits.

On the other hand, if we start to see a 100M+ new shares hitting the market, at a penny or less, longs beware. I really don't see that happening though. After all, dumps are usually preceeded by management inspired pumps and we certainly have seen little evidence of a pump here.