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treit2002

02/29/12 8:38 PM

#8905 RE: emergingmarketinvestor #8895


What I always said that seems to rankle you was that failing announcements of the kind issued today, I found it hard to see how SIAF would grow from $50M-$55M in revenues to $65M-70M in profits in one year. And without hard announcements, might be better to have conservative guidance, as even $45M - $50M income from operations would be pretty darn good, 2 1/2 times 2011.

But heck, I hope they bust through $1.00, and accelerate both growth and cash flow positive operation.

Several more of these announcements, and maybe they can :).

Several underlying encouraging details beyond the headlines:

1) the contract was dated 11/18/2011
2) there's a phase three in the contract for expansion starting in 2013
3) "CA shall have the option to acquire up to 75%of the equity of the SFJVC from the employer at cost within three( (3) from the date hereof" On the face of it, SIAF may have the option to improve 2012 cash flow, as to Bear's insights
4) the presentation in Sweden in May of 2011 that originally targeted $1.00 of 2012 earnings, also targeted 2012 revenues from fisher consulting and servicing of $41M. Therefore, this contract appears to meet half their goal
5) it appears that Q4 revenues from fish consulting and servicing will be about $11.8M, up from Q3's $8.8M. This is based on assuming SIAF's Q3 fish income of $10.9M included $2M in fish sales, and the following part of the release:

"We project that this contract award could result in revenue generation upwards of $21 million for fiscal year 2012, which alone represents almost 85% of the revenue generated from our Capital Award's consulting and servicing contracts during fiscal year 2011."

Net net, it now appears that the fish consulting and servicing business is right on track. We'll learn much more about the fish sales that lag in the upcoming quarterly reports.

Does anyone know what the fish sale capacity of the new farm will be, based on 16 APM, and how long it will take to reach capacity?