No Surprise-
I'm with you on this(So Yeah, Bring It On!!!)-
There are a lot of other exciting places to put your money these days, even just in biotech,
and it may be that at least a significant amount of the "easy money" (whatever that is, since it almost never seems easy at the time) has already been made in Ariad.
However, it really does look like Ariad has a truly(possibly uniquely)"great drug development team" which is a rare and valuable asset.
So, despite my respect for the perspective of BTH and others on this point, that fact alone, tips me into the positive column, in terms of my assessment of the risk/reward.
Although I'm not someone who's always obsessing about a next compound(although there will certainly be one from this team ultimately), and I don't plan on some imminent buyout drama(though it wouldn't be surprising if it occurred),
at the same time what we have in terms of relatively proven assets, combined with the surprises that are likely in terms of the further development of these assets, causes me, with some reservations to want to hold the course, particularly during the buildup to ASCO, which I believe will, because of events like VVUS, cause biotech to continue to outperform, short of a war, in the near term.
After that, if it looks like Obama will be re-elected, the prospect of increased capital gains and other taxes, combined with continued international anxiety could cause a lot of people to want to exit the market, so it will be necessary to re-evaluate.
So, short of a war, though I too see a sell(the news?) event in 2012, I believe that from now to June is probably the better time to be in biotech, because the traditional pre-Asco momentum bolstered by drug approvals and development is likely to keep it (and Ariad) going till then.
Of course, all still very dicey, any way you slice it!
Best,
bw
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